【作者】 吕学志；

【导师】 杨光；

【作者基本信息】 山东大学 ， 国际政治， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 美印核协议的签订生效标志着美印双边关系的进一步提升。美国政府推进与印度的核合作,主要出于五方面考虑：首先,该协议有利于将印度纳入国际核不扩散机制之内,对防止印度横向核扩散有积极意义；其次,有利于减轻印度在全球能源市场与美国的竞争,减少印度对伊朗、苏丹、委内瑞拉及缅甸等与美国对立的国家的能源依赖；第三,有利于美国开拓印度的核能市场及军火市场,为美国企业带来丰厚的经济收益；第四,有利于帮助印度崛起,扩大民主国家在全球的影响力；第五,有利于联合印度,实施其制衡中国的战略。然而该协议的签署也引发了美国国内反扩散人士的质疑,他们认为美国开放对印核贸易,一方面会提升印度的核弹生产能力,为核扩散埋下隐患；另一方面也会引发巴基斯坦、伊朗、朝鲜等国家的不满,引发印巴核竞赛,增加伊朗核问题、朝鲜核问题解决的难度；此外,也可能增加恐怖分子利用和获取核燃料制造恐怖武器的途径,增加恐怖分子进行恐怖袭击的目标。但在国内众多力量的推动下,该协议最终还是在美国国会得到了通过。印度推进该协议是因为：美印核协议的实施,将使印度更加方便快捷的获得紧缺的核燃料、先进的核技术,大大提升印度的核能利用水平；同时,该协议的签署也是对印度大国地位的承认,对印度推进有声有色大国战略具有重要的意义；美印核协议的签署有利于巩固印度在南亚地区的战略优势,也增加了印度与美、俄、中等大国进行博弈的战略主动性。印度国内对美印核协议的质疑是担心在国家主权以及独立决策方面会受到美国的控制和侵犯。虽然由于印度国内政治危机该协议一度被冻结,但该协议最后还是在印度议会得到通过。国际社会对美印核协议的反应各有异同,英国的态度由反对转变为支持；法、俄始终表示支持；中国没有明确表示反对与支持；巴基斯坦则对仅给印度核待遇而不给巴基斯坦表示了不满；关系该协议最后命运的国际原子能机构和核供应国集团则给了该协议许可。美印核协议的通过,一方面严重冲击了国际核不扩散机制,美印核协议的签署使“禁止与非核不扩散条约国进行核贸易”的国际核不扩散机制规则失去约束力,可能造成印度核武器的纵向核扩散并为其他国家开启了不良的示范；另一方面也反映了大国力量、强权政治在国际核不扩散机制的运作过程中的主导作用,国际核不扩散机制能否有效发挥作用取决于大国力量、强权政治。美印核协议对地区安全的影响主要集中于南亚地区,可能引发印巴核军备竞赛以及恐怖主义对南亚薄弱地区的新一轮恐怖袭击；美印核协议在促进美印战略关系提升的同时,也引发了美印俄、美印中、美印日等大国互动关系和战略决策的变化。更多还原

【Abstract】 US-India civilian nuclear energy accord promotes the U.S.-India relationship further. There five reasons that U.S. government cooperates with India in civilian nuclear area: First, the U.S. government thinks the accord would help U.S. bring India into international non-proliferation regime, which has positive significance to prevent proliferation; Second, it is helpful of reducing India’s energy competition with U.S. in global energy market, and decreasing India’s dependency on countries opposed to U.S.; Third, it would help U.S. open up India’s nuclear market and weapon market, which would bring lucrative profits to America’s enterprises; Fourth, it is in favor of the rise of India, and enlarging the global influences of democracies; Fifth, it is useful of uniting India to carry out America’s strategy of containing China. However, this accord also initiates domestic doubts from counter-proliferation personages in U.S.. In their opinions, opening the nuclear trade to India would promote India’s nuclear bombs’ production capability, lead serious harms to nuclear proliferation; on the other hand, it would induce dissatisfactions of Pakistan, Iran and North Korea, and increase complexity and difficulty to solve the Iran nuclear problem and North Korea nuclear problem; Moreover, it would increase the channels of terrorists to obtain and make use of the nuclear fuels to manufacture terrorist weapons, and increase the attacked targets of terrorists. But driven by the American domestic powers’ impetus, this accord passed in American congress finally. There are some reasons that India promotes this accord. The implementations of this accord will help India obtain nuclear material and nuclear technology quickly and easily, promote the level of nuclear energy uses; at the same time, this accord means U.S. accepts India as a nuclear big power. The accord has symbolic significance to India’s great-power ambition, consolidates India’s superiority in southern Asia, and increases India’s strategic initiatives in the game with U.S., Russia, China, etc. The domestic doubt is about that India’s national sovereignty and autonomy would be violated by America. Although the nuclear accord is paused because of the Indian domestic political crisis, it passed in Indian Parliament finally either. International society’s responses to this accord are different. Britain’s attitude shifts from objection to support; France and Russia support this accord all along. China doesn’t express support or objection definitely; Pakistan expresses dissatisfaction with giving India nuclear treatment; International Atomic Energy Agency and Nuclear Suppliers Group give permissions to this accord. The success of US-India civilian nuclear energy accord impinges seriously on international non-proliferation regime. It destroys the rule of international non-proliferation regime which stipulates that nuclear weapon states could not trade with non nuclear non-proliferation Treaty countries. It would lead to the vertical proliferation of Indian nuclear weapons and set a bad example to other countries. The accord reflects the substance that great power and power politics act as a dominant role in the operation of international regime. The impacts of US-India civilian nuclear energy accord on regional security focus on southern Asia, which would bring about nuclear arm race between India and Pakistan and the terrorist attacks to the weak areas of southern Asia. The accord would promote U.S.-Indian strategic relations, and change the strategic decisions of U.S., India, Russia, China and Japan, and the relations among these major powers.更多还原