【作者】 周峰；

【导师】 王成；

【作者基本信息】 山东大学 ， 公共管理， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 目前,我国已经进入了低生育水平阶段,但随着具有中国特色社会主义市场经济的不断推进,在以人为本,构建和谐社会的大环境下,基层计划生育行政强制手段明显弱化,而现行的生育政策又与人们的生育观念存在较大差距,致使济阳县违法生育呈现反弹的趋势,低生育水平面临挑战。因此,寻找当前形势下遏制违法生育,稳定低生育水平的途径,对实现济阳县经济、社会的协调可持续发展具有较强的现实意义。本文在其他专家和学者的研究基础上,以辩证唯物主义和历史唯物主义为指导,以济阳县育龄妇女生育状况和计划生育工作现状为基础,以遏制违法生育为切入点,利用政治学、经济学、统计学等有关方法和理论,分析济阳县生育水平现状及其稳定低生育水平保障机制。根据研究需要,采用了定量预测模型分析、抽样调查、典型分析、比较研究等研究方法,充分利用了济阳县多部门统计数据,力图使本文更具有说服力。本文指出由于社会背景和传统文化的影响,稳定低生育水平不能照搬照抄国外的生育控制模式,而要根据我国的实际情况来进行分析和探索。本文结合济阳县实际情况,用大量翔实的数据分析来证明提出的观点,通过解剖济阳县生育状况面临的问题,挖掘出当前违法生育产生的根源,最终提出了应从强化行政管理和完善社会保障体系两个方面来遏制违法生育,稳定低生育水平。提出了济阳县稳定低生育水平问题是一项社会系统工程,需要调动各方面的力量,经济、法律、教育、科技和行政手段并举,才能有效解决这个问题。提出稳定低生育水平的关键在于遏制违法生育,根本在于完善社会保障体系解决“老有所养”、“老有所医”和“老有所乐”的问题。更多还原

【Abstract】 At present, China has entered a stage of low birth rate. However, with the progress of a socialist market economy with Chinese characteristics, we are building a harmonious people-oriented society, and, administrative coercive measures are significantly weakened at the grass-roots level; on the other hand, there is a big gap between the current family planning policy and the concept of child-bearing, which leads to a rebound of illegal reproduction in Jiyang County and which is also a challenge of low birth. Therefore, the search for effective measures to curb illegal reproduction and to keep the low birth rate is of great practical significance to the realization of the coordinated and sustainable development of Jiyang County.Based on the research of other scholars, this paper, guided by dialectical materialism and historical materialism, employs political, economical and statistic theories to study the status of fertility in Jiyang County and the security mechanism to keep low birth rate. To make the paper more convincing, research methods such as quantitative analysis of forecasting models, sample survey, typical analysis, and comparative study as well as statistics by many sections in Jiyang County are employed.It is pointed out that due to the social background and the influence of traditional culture, in order to keep low birth rate, the model of abroad should not be copied, but the actual situation should be considered. In this paper, with a full consideration of the actual situation in Jiyang County, and with a large number of detailed data, the root causes of the current illegal reproduction will be dug out, and two pieces of advice are given:to strengthen administration and to improve the social security system. It is also pointed out that keeping the low birth rate of Jiyang County is a social systemic project that needs strengths of all including economics, law, education, science and technology and administration. It is also made clear that the key to keep low birth is to curb the illegal reproduction, and the fundamentality to keep low birth is to improve the social security system including ensuring that the old are taken good care of, enjoy good medical treatment and have appropriate pleasures.更多还原