【作者】 宋洪军；

【导师】 肖春来；

【作者基本信息】 北方工业大学 ， 数量经济学， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 利用企业内在价值评价方法对企业价值进行评估是企业兼并、重组等经济活动中做出投资决策的核心。利用企业内在价值评价模型对企业价值进行评估对企业管理、提升投资者自身财富具有重要作用,同时可以为非公开市场上资产的价值的评估提供参考。我国对企业价值评估的研究是伴随着国有企业改革的实践发展起来的,理论研究方面还不够完善,因此研究和建立适合于我国企业的价值评价体系和评价模型就显得异常紧迫和必要。本文从企业及企业价值的内涵出发,重点对企业内在价值评价模型进行研究。首先借鉴国内外学者研究成果对理论界和实务界广泛使用的基于现金流的收益折现模型和相对比较价值模型及近年来企业价值评价模型研究热点的实物期权模型和F-O模型进行了系统的介绍。然后从定性和定量两个方面将被认为是20世纪80年代末90年代初企业内在价值评价模型研究的一个最新发展的F-O模型与当前在实务界广泛应用的股利贴现模型、自由现金流量贴现模型进行了比较,发现F-O模型对我国规模大、流动性强的优质大盘股股票价格具有较强的解释能力,其对这些股票价格的解释力远大于其他两个模型。为了使F-O模型更好的应用于实际,本文还尝试借鉴前辈的研究成果对F-O模型进行改进,结合财务知识将F-O模型中的剩余收益进行分解,并引入ARIMA模型完成了对F-O模型的改进,为了验证对F-O模型这种改进的效果,本文以青岛海尔股份有限公司为案例对F-O模型的改进进行了实证检验,证明这种对F-O模型的改进,具有较好的预测能力,从而为F-O模型改进研究提供了一种较好的思路。最后对本文的结论进行了阐述,认为利用F-O模型和中国资本市场中其他板块数据(例如：金融板块、创业板)研究其对股票价格解释力及企业价值评价模型研究的另一个热点实物期权模型都有值得进一步深入研究的地方。更多还原

【Abstract】 Valuations of the enterprise are the core of the decision of the merger between enterprises, restructuring of the corporation. Valuation plays a very important role in the enterprise management and makes Investors incease their wealth. Valuation is a reference value of assets on the non-assessment. The research on the valuation of the enterprise comes from practice of state-owned enterprise reform in China. It is imperfect in the theoretical system of the valuation. So it is very urgent in establishing China’s own valuation system and model. The paper emphasises on the research on valuation of the enterprise intrinsic value.First, the paper make an introductory in DDM Model and DCF Model which are widely used in theorists and practitions, Real Optiongs Model and F-O Model which are the hot topic of the rasearch on valuation.Then, the paper make a comparision of DDM Model, DCF Model which are widely used in theorists and practitions and F-O Model which is regarded as the latest development since 1990s’on explaining the stock price. It was found that F-O Model be better than DDM Model and DCF Model in the side of explaining the stock price.In order to the practical application of F-O Model, the paper tries to improve the F-O Model by referencing the seniors’outcome. Through decomposing Residual Income to components and according to these components’time series properies, a F-O Model will be improved. In order to study the effect of the improvement, this paper use Haier’s data to test the F-O improved Model. It was found that the improvement provided a good idea to improve F-O Model.Finally a conclusion has been drawn and a simple description of the limitations have taken on applying F-O Model to explain the price of the other sites on the stock and researching Real Opions Model.更多还原