【作者】 罗光斌；

【导师】 何丙辉；

【作者基本信息】 西南大学 ， 生态学， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 系统动力学(SD)隶属于系统科学的范畴,它把研究对象看成一个系统,从系统的内部结构出发研究系统的功能,并集结自然科学和社会科学准则对研究对象进行定性与定量相结合的全面分析。生态环境系统是一个多因子、高阶次、非线性的复杂大系统,涉及的影响因素很多,传统研究方法不再适用于这种复杂系统的研究。为此,本文选用系统动力学原理和方法研究城乡统筹发展背景下重庆市生态环境问题,对其行为特征的演变进行仿真模拟、预测预报和政策试验。本文研究主要有四个部分,第一部分是重庆市城乡统筹发展背景下生态环境现状评价研究,利用时序主成分分析法对重庆市1998-2008年11年间生态环境系统行为演变进行实证评价研究。结果显示,城乡背景下重庆市生态环境整体水平在1998-2008年11年间呈持续上升趋势,在其间有变化速率的起伏改变。系统协调度在这期间呈“双峰态”变化：1998-2001年间以低速率稳步上升,2001年达第一个演变峰值0.5238,2002有一个突然的急剧下降(评价指数-1.3478，年际变化幅度达到-1.8715)并逐渐演变达到谷底,2004年开始以较快速率(平均年际增幅0.7259)回升,到2006年演变到第二个峰值0.7749，此后又开始变缓下降。重庆市城乡生态环境子系统间的关系可以用方程式F=0.7456F1-0.7311F2来表征。第二部分是重庆市生态环境系统动力学建模研究,应用系统动力学原理和方法分析了重庆市城乡统筹发展背景下的生态环境系统,认为系统包括三个主要的状态变量：污染、人口和资金,三个状态变量通过另外一些常量和辅助变量相互作用,从而构成不同反馈极性的循环回路。在此基础上,本文建立了重庆市城乡统筹发展背景下生态环境系统动力学模型,然后估计了模型的相关参数并确定了模型的动力学方程式,最后检验发现模型能很好地通过结构检验和历史行为检验,表明此模型能很好地刻画实际系统。第三部分是重庆市生态环境系统动力学模型的模拟仿真研究,结果表明：(1)未来近10年内,全市总人口呈逐步增长态势,到2020年将增加到3860.14万人,城镇人口将增至2478.21万人,农业人口逐步减少至1312.83万人,城镇化率达到0.642，工业产值有大幅度增加,城镇化进程较快。在城乡统筹发展背景下,重庆市生态环境总污染中工业三废污染所占比重大于农业面源污染,城镇化给城镇生态环境所带来的环境负荷较大,而给乡村生态环境带来的环境负荷则相对较小。(2)从总量看,重庆市工业三废污染属废水型污染,而从污染增加的速率看,则属废气型污染。综合考虑,全市目前的工业三废污染格局是：废水污染>废气污染>固体废弃物污染。其中,工业固体废弃物污染属“粉煤灰”污染型,废气污染属“二氧化硫-烟尘”污染型。(3)从污染总量看,重庆市农业面源污染属“养殖-农化”型污染,其中种植污染比养殖污染大,在种植污染中农药化肥污染最大,其次是秸秆污染,地膜污染最小。但从污染增加速率看,则属于以种植污染为主的“农化-养殖”型污染,农化污染增加是最快的,其次是养殖和秸秆污染,地膜污染相对最小。第四部分是重庆市生态环境系统动力学模型的政策试验研究,以2010年为政策试验时间起点对模型进行模拟,最终结果发现：(1)统筹重庆市城乡发展,必须严格控制好人口和资本两个因素,以实现城乡生态环境的协调发展。对于人口一要控制好总量规模达到3831.57万人左右,二要逐步提高城镇化率到0.698左右；对于资本要素,要特别注意控制好农业投资比例以免间接引起农业面源污染加重。(2)控制城镇工业三废污染要注意调整产业结构,从源头上控制污染的发生,同时提高污染处理率、资源重复利用率并降低生产能耗；优化模拟认为系统中生活排污也应引起足够重视,并应在基本方案的基础上减少40%左右。(3)控制农业面源污染要着重控制养殖污染物的排放和农药化肥的施用,并加大对面源污染物的有效处理和利用,优化方案建议逐步提高10%-15%。更多还原

【Abstract】 System Dynamics (SD) falls into the category of Systems Science. It regardes the research object as a system, and analysises the system’s functions through its internal structure, it combines natural science and social science, adopts qualitative and quantitative to analyse the system comprehensively. Eco-environmental system is a multi-factor, high-order, non-linear complex system, involves many complicated factors. So, traditional research methods are no longer applicable to such complex systems.Therefore we chose System Dynamics to study the problem of eco-environment system in Chongqing in the background of conducting urban and rural development, hoping to simulate and forecast the evolution of its begaviors and carry out policy experimentation on it.This paper is mainly divided into four parts, the first is the evaluation research on present urban eco-environment in Chongqing city in the background of conducting urban and rural eco-environment development. And then, the behaviors of eco-environment system during 1998 to 2008 in Chongqing city was empirically evaluated by using Times Series Analysis & PCA method. The results showed that the overall level of eco-environment quality in Chongqing city in the context of urban and rural development has continued to rise, and the changing rates changed up and down in the meantime. The coordination degree variations of the system showed a double peaks curve:it increased steadily with a low-rate from 1998 to 2001;and then it reached the first peak of 0.5238 in 2001, there is a sudden sharp decline (evaluation index of-1.3478, inter-annual variation scope of -1.8715) in 2001, and gradually evolved to the bottom, then it started to rise again with a more rapid rate (the average inter-annual growth rate is 0.7259) in 2001. Its evolution reached to the second peak 0.7749 in the year of 2006 and began to decline. The relationships between subsystems of urban and rural eco-environment in Chongqing city can be characterized with the equation F= 0.7456F1-0.73112.The second part is the research on dynamic model of eco-environment system in Chongqing city. By means of system dynamics theory and methods, this paper analysises the eco-environment of Chongqing city in the background of coordinating urban-rural development. From the analyzation, the paper believes that the system consists of three major state variables:pollution, population and funds. They are interrelated and interact on each other through other state variables and auxiliary variables. Thus the system constituting many feedback loops which have different polarity. For that point, this paper has established the System Dynamic model of eco-environment system of Chongqing city in the background of coordinating urban-rural development, and then estimated the model parameters and determined the model kinetic equation. The simulation and final test of the model indicate that its structure and historical behaviours are well testified. So, the model can well describe the actual system.The third part is System Dynamics simulation for study on eco-environment system of Chongqing city and the results show that:(1) In the next nearly 10 years, the city’s total population will increase to 38.6014 million; the urban population will increase to 24.7821 million; the agricultural population will gradually reduce to 13.1283 million, the urbanization rate has reached 0.642, a substantial increase is in industrial output, the process of rapid urbanization has been improved quickly. In the context of urban and rural development in Chongqing Municipality, the total pollution in the environment of industrial waste pollution is greater than the proportion of agricultural non-point source pollution, it is relatively small. (2) As a whole, the industrial waste pollution in Chongqing is a water-based pollution; however, from the view of the rate of increase, it is a gas-based pollution. Taken together, the city’s current pattern of industrial waste pollution is: "waste water pollution"> "air pollution"> "solid waste pollution". Among them, industrial solid waste pollution are "ash" pollution type, air pollution is a "sulfur dioxide and fuel dust" pollution type. (3) From the total pollution of view, agricultural non-point source pollution in Chongqing is "cultivation-pesticides-fertizer" pollution type, as for the pollution, planting causing is more serious than cultivation causing. Among planting pollution, pesticides and fertilizers pollution is the most serious one. and then is the straw pollution, the plastic film pollution is the smallest one. However, view at the increasing rates of pollution, it is "pesticides-fertizer-cultivation" pollution on the basis of planting pollution, pesticides-fertizer pollution increase is the fastest, and then is the farming and straw pollution, farm plastic film pollution is relatively minimal.The fourth part is the policy pilot studies to ecological environment system dynamics model of Chongqing, considering the year of 2010 as the policy test starting point simulate the model. Results show that:(1) To coordinate the development of urban and rural areas in Chongqing’s, we must strictly control the population and capital these two factors, so as to coordinate the development of urban and rural eco-environment. As for the total population, first is to control the total population to reach 38.3157 million; second is to gradually increase the urbanization rate to about 0.698; as for the capital element, particular attention should be paid to controlling the ratio of investment in agriculture so as not to indirectly caused increased agricultural non-point source pollution. (2) In order to control the industrial waste pollution occurring in cities and towns,we must pay attention to adjusting the industrial structure, and at the same time, improve the rates of pollution disposal and resource recycling, reduce energy consumption; optimizing simulation showed that the living sewage in the system should also be paid sufficient attention and be reduced by 40% or so on the basis of the basic scheme. (3) The control of agricultural non-point source pollution should focus on the emission of pollutants and pesticides, farming fertilizer application, and increase the effective processing and use of pollutants and pesticides. Optimization scheme showes that they should be gradually improved at 10%-15%.更多还原