【作者】 宋青武；

【导师】 丁红岩；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 结构工程， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 近年来,海洋石油天然气工业快速发展,海洋工程技术日趋成熟,安全管理的技术和方法也提出了很多,但是各种海洋工程事故还是不断发生。海洋立管作为海洋油气开采系统的重要部件之一,在内部流体和外部环境荷载的作用下会发生碰撞、断裂和腐蚀失效等,造成严重的经济损失和环境破坏。因此对海洋立管破坏风险进行有效的评估是十分必要的。本课题主要从风险的角度对海洋立管发生破坏失效的可能性及其后果影响进行评价,评述了海洋立管风险评价的一般方法和理论,并提出了降低立管破坏风险的一般措施,评价结果可以为管理者提供更有效的理论支持。主要研究工作和研究成果如下:1、对国内外海洋立管事故进行了统计分析,归纳出海洋立管破坏失效的原因主要包括管理不善、荷载破坏、第三方破坏、腐蚀、严重段塞流以及人为打孔盗油等,并运用模糊故障树方法,对立管失效概率进行了定量分析,提出了在数据资料缺乏的情况下确定立管发生破坏的可能性大小的一种方法;2、采用ANSYS有限元分析方法对环境荷载作用下的立管自振频率、应力以及位移情况进行分析,从立管所受应力、变形等角度对立管破坏的可能性进行简单评估,立管工作的海洋环境越恶劣,其发生破坏失效的风险就越大;3、对立管破坏失效的后果进行定性分析,包括人员伤亡、经济损失以及环境破坏等,并使用风险矩阵对立管失效风险进行了简单的评价,表明立管经过维护后其破坏风险将大大降低。最后提出了降低立管破坏风险的一般措施,为保证立管安全运行提供了依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years, the offshore oil and gas industry develops quickly, the marine engineering technology becomes mature and the safety management techniques has been put forward a lot, but kinds of marine engineering accident happenes constantly. As one of the important component of the marine oil-gas recovery system, the combined actions of the internal fluid and the external environment will lead the marine riser to collision, fracture and corrosion failure. Therefore evaluating the failure risk of marine riser effectively is very necessary.This essay mainly evaluates the possibility of failure damage and its consequences from the angle of risk and reviews the general methods and theories of evaluating risk of the riser. It also gives some general measures to reduce the risk. The evaluation results can provide more effective theoretical support for the managers. The main contents and achievements of the thesis are summarized as follow:1. The failure reasons of the marine riser were identified according to the statistical analysis of the marine riser failure at home and abroad, which include ill management, load damage, third-party damage, corrosion, serious slugging flow and drilling for theft. It uses fuzzy fault tree method to quantificationally analysis the failure probability of the marine riser. The text puts forward a method to definite the probability while they have not enough data information.2. This text uses ANSYS finite element analysis method to analysis the frequency, stress and displacement of the marine riser under environmental loads. It evaluates riser risk from the angle of stress and deform. With the environment condition gets worse,the risk of riser failure becomes greater.3. The essay qualitative evaluates the consequences of the riser failure. It includes personal injury, economic losses and environmental destruction. It uses the risk matrix to simply evaluate the failure risk of the riser. The result shows that the risk will be reduced greatly after maintain. Finally it puts forwards some general measures to reduce the failure risk and gives foundations to guarantee riser run safely.更多还原