【作者】 袁东敏；

【导师】 郭建平；

【作者基本信息】 中国气象科学研究院 ， 气象学， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 本文在对我国东北地区过去(1961—2006年)生长季内各农业气候资源时空变化进行分析的基础上,评估了气候变化对东北玉米生长发育的影响。在前人研究成果的基础上对东北玉米模拟模型加以完善,将二氧化碳浓度作为整个模型的输入变量,形成改进后的东北玉米模拟模型。最后使用该模型进行模拟,研究未来气候变化对东北玉米生长发育的影响,并提出适应性措施。主要结论如下：(1)东北地区受气候变化影响较大,通过对东北地区生长季内各气候资源时空变化趋势分析,东北地区气候总体存在以“气温显著提高,降水、日照时数减少”为主要特点的暖干化趋势,具体表现为：(a)东北三省绝大部分地区在过去46年内保持增温的趋势,由南向北增温幅度变大。从1981年开始,东北全区域平均温度的上升趋势变得越来越显著。(b)降水变化趋势的空间差异较大,但大部分站点降水呈减少的趋势。在时间变化上,东北全区域降水保持了一种不明显的减少趋势。(c)大部分站点的日照时数呈减少的趋势,并且变化幅度由东南向西北逐渐变大。东北全区域日照时数UF线在1986年超过95%信度线,明显减少。(2)根据田间试验资料对模型做适用性检验,通过模拟生育期,并与实测生育期资料相比,大部分生育期的模拟误差在1—3天。玉米叶面积指数、各器官干重和总干重的模拟效果均比较理想,尤其是模型中表征产量的穗重模拟效果较好。(3)在改进的东北玉米模拟模型的基础上,加入CO2浓度的直接影响模块,使CO2浓度成为模型的初始输入变量,建立了考虑CO2浓度变化对东北玉米影响的改进模型。分析表明：模型在东北地区有较好的模拟效果。与当前状况相比较,仅考虑CO2对玉米光合作用的影响时,产量上升但幅度不大；而当仅考虑CO2对玉米蒸腾作用的影响时,产量上升显著；综合考虑CO2对光合和蒸腾作用的影响时,由于两者对产量均是正效应,产量增加的幅度最大,与控制试验的结果较一致。修改后的模型能够模拟出C4作物,尤其是玉米在高CO2浓度下光合作用和蒸腾作用的不同响应程度,且产量的提高幅度与已有试验较为一致。(4)分别讨论了考虑或不考虑CO2直接影响时,未来气候变化下东北玉米产量和生育期的变化情况,结果表明：(a)在不考虑CO2直接影响时,A2、B2情景下东北地区玉米产量以减产为主,减产幅度保持在20%以内,B2情景下东北玉米的减产幅度略大于A2。(b)在考虑CO2直接影响时,A2情景下的东北玉米产量和不考虑CO2直接影响时表现出显著的差异。除黑龙江南部和东北平原西南部散落的小部分区域还存在减产的情况外,2011—2050年40年平均产量相对于baseline气候情景在东北大部分地区都表现为正距平。而B2情景下仍以减产为主。(c)未来情景下的东北玉米生育期除了在辽宁中东部、吉林西部和黑龙江鹤岗地区表现为生育期的延长,在3天以内,其他地区均表现为生育期的缩短。(5)通过调整播期等适应性措施,可以缓解未来气候变化对东北玉米生长发育的负面影响。更多还原

【Abstract】 The impact of climate change on the growth of maize in Northeastern China was examined using the temporal and spatial analysis of agricultural climate resources during the period of 1961-2006. Based on the maize growth simulation model, the growth sub-model was improved by treating the carbon dioxide concentration as an input variable of the model. Then the impact of future climate change on the growth of maize in Northeastern China was studied using the improved model. It is extremely helpful to policy maker and international environmental agreements.The primary conclusions are as follows:(1) Northeast China is one of the most affection areas by climate change. Based on the meteorological observation data in the growing season from 1961 to 2006, the result showed that Northeast China has some climatologically characteristics, including sharply increased temperature and the decrease of precipitation and the sunshine hours. Specifically, the detailed results were:(a) the temperature range became bigger from south to north in Northeast China, and the tendency become increasingly significant since 1981. (b)The spatial tendency of the precipitation was different, but the decrease trend was not obviously. (c)The sunshine hours in the most stations were decreased; the range became bigger from southeast to northwest. (2) By the contrast of simulated and observed development days, the simulated error was 1 to 3 days. Through the adjustment and validation of the applicability, the original model could simulate the leaf area index and dry weight of organs well, which is applicable in northeast China. (3) To consider the impact of the climate change and fertilization effect on the growth and development of maize in northeast china comprehensively, the growth sub-model at production level 1 was modified. Then the improved model was used to simulate the maize yields respectively in the following 3 programs:(a) considering only the photosynthesis, (b) considering only the transpiration, and (c) considering both the photosynthesis and transpiration. By comparative analysis, simulated yields all rise in the three programs, when the carbon dioxide concentration increased The response of transpiration and the increase of the yield to the increased CO2 are both more significant and larger than that of program B. (4) The yield of maize would reduce under A2, B2 scenarios without considering CO2 fertilizer effects. With CO2 direct effects, CO2 fertilization effect may offset negative impacts of climate change on maize yields. (5)Appropriately adjusting sowing data and introducing new varieties all can improve maize yield effectively.更多还原