【作者】 万骞；

【导师】 张雪梅；

【作者基本信息】 中国地质大学（北京） ， 会计学， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 随着常规能源的不断匮乏和环境日益恶化,世界各国加大对可再生能源的投资开发。该行业必定能得到飞速的发展,并会吸引越来越多的投资者。如何对该行业进行科学的投资分析是所有投资者要面临的重要问题。传统的投资决策方法存在固有的缺陷,不能对可再生能源项目做出科学的投资评价。由金融期权理论发展而来的实物期权方法能够帮助投资者发掘潜在的投资机会,更好地利用不确定性来提高项目的投资价值,为投资者提供了一个崭新的决策思路。首先,本文介绍了以净现值方法为代表的传统投资决策方法和实物期权方法的基本理论。然后,探讨了国内外可再生能源项目的投资现状,从可再生能源项目具有不确定性、不可逆性、选择性和存在潜在的投资机会这四个方面来阐述可再生能源投资的主要特点。接着,分析了净现值法存在的缺陷。从六个方面来阐述实物期权理论弥补了净现值方法的不足,更适用于可再生能源项目的投资分析。并且构建了增长投资期权模型,利用布莱克——舒尔斯定价公式对可再生能源项目进行投资分析。紧接着,通过生物柴油这个案例对比论证了实物期权理论的优越性。最后,对全文进行总结概括。本文最重要的研究成果:1、采用实物期权方法对投资项目进行分析时,投资者可以根据市场状况灵活地调整投资方案。该理论还能够利用市场的不确定性和管理柔性为投资者创造后续的投资机会,提高企业的竞争优势。2、本文针对传统投资方法的缺陷,并结合可再生能源项目不确定因素较多的特点,提出将实物期权理论引入到可再生能源项目的投资评估中,使用布莱克——舒尔斯定价公式进行定量化分析,指出实物期权理论能够更好地利用这些风险来增加项目的投资价值,为该行业提供了一种全新的投资分析方法。3、实证分析中以生物柴油项目为例,通过与净现值法对比分析,指出实物期权方法能够克服净现值法的缺陷,发掘出风险较大的项目的潜在投资机会,证明了实物期权方法对可再生能源项目进行投资分析的可行性和优越性。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the shortage of conventional energy sources and environmental degradation, states increase investment in renewable energy development. The industry must be developed rapidly, and will attract more and more investors. How to invest are the important problems that investors will face with. The traditional methods of investment decision-making have inherent flaws, and can not made the scientific evaluation in renewable energy projects. Real options approach that developed from financial option theory can help investors to identify potential investment opportunities, take advantage of uncertainty to enhance the investment value of projects, and provide investors with a new policy idea.First, this article describes the basic theory of the traditional methods of investment decision and real options approach. Second, the paper explores the domestic and foreign investment in renewable energy projects, and explains the main features of investment in renewable energy from these four areas that is renewable energy projects uncertainty, irreversibility, selectivity and potential investment opportunities. Third, analyze of the shortcomings of NPV. The paper described that real option approach can make up for deficiencies in net present value method from six aspects, is suitable for investment analysis of the industry. Construct the Option to Growth, and use B- S formula to investment analysis in renewable energy projects. Fourth, the paper demonstrates the superiority of real options approach through the case in bio-diesel. Last, summarize the full text.The most important research results:1. Investors who use the real option approach can adjust flexibly the investment program according to market conditions. The theory can also take advantage of market uncertainty and management flexibility to help investors to create follow-up investment opportunities, and improve the enterprise’s competitive advantage.2. The paper combines the shortcomings of traditional investment approach with features that there are more uncertainties in renewable energy projects, proposes that introduce real options approach into the assessment of the industry’s investment, use B-S formula for renewable energy projects in quantitative analysis and indicates that real options approach can take advantage of uncertainty to enhance the investment value of projects and provide investors with a new policy ideas.3. Case analysis in bio-diesel project that compares with net present value method points out that real option approach can overcome the shortcomings of NPV and explore the potential investment opportunities in higher risk project, which proves the feasibility and superiority of real option approach in renewable energy projects.更多还原