【作者】 郭家秀；

【导师】 胡小猛；

【作者基本信息】 上海师范大学 ， 自然地理学， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 土地利用/覆被变化(LUCC)研究是全球变化研究的热点和前沿问题之一,在全球环境变化与可持续发展研究中占有重要的地位。遥感技术因其宏观、快速、动态、大面积等优点,已经成为监测土地利用/覆被变化的主要手段。本文以上海市为研究区域,基于1997年和2002年两期遥感影像,采用最大似然法和支持向量机分类方法提取上海市土地利用覆被变化信息。结合前人解译的1987年和2007年土地覆被信息,运用土地利用动态度和土地利用程度指标分析了上海市20年来土地利用/覆被的时空变化。在土地利用/覆被变化分析的基础上,结合上海市20年间经济统计数据分析了影响土地利用/覆被变化的人口和经济驱动因素。最后,根据前人的主成分分析得到的影响上海市土地利用覆被变化驱动力的综合得分,结合解译和推算的上海市1987-2007年历年耕地面积的比例,建立了区域社会-经济-生态综合指数与土地利用覆被变化的相关模型。通过本文的研究,得到了以下主要结论:(1)利用最大似然法和支持向量机分类方法提取了上海市1997年、2002年两期的土地利用/覆被信息。本文采用比较分类的方法,综合比较两种分类方法的精度,对于1997年TM影像采用支持向量机分类法,对于2002年的ETM影像,采用最大似然法分类法。两者的总体分类精度分别为88.6734%和87.3009%,满足了研究的需要。(2)通过单一土地利用动态度、综合土地利用动态度和土地利用程度分析了土地利用的动态变化。发现研究时段内,耕地和未利用地的面积在持续减少,城乡建设用地、林地、草地的面积在持续增加。其中,变化最快的是林地,20年间,林地面积由1987年的28906公顷增长到2007年的118443公顷,增长了89437公顷,增长率是310%,年增长率是15.5%;耕地面积的减少总量最大,达167344公顷;城乡建设用地面积的增加总量最大,达123788公顷;草地面积虽有增长,但是变化不大;水域面积经历了先增加后减少的变化,不过总体变化幅度不大。(3)结合20年间上海市的社会经济统计数据,运用Excel和SPSS的统计回归分析功能,分析了影响上海市土地利用/覆被变化的主导驱动力。人口因素分析方面,建立了土地利用程度的人口分异模型、总人口和耕地面积相关性模型;经济因素方面,建立了经济发展水平与耕地面积相关性模型。结果表明,经济发展和人口增长是促成上海市土地利用/覆被变化的主要原因。上海市的土地利用/覆被变化还受着其他因素的影响,比如政策因素和科技进步等因素。(4)结合前人的主成分分析研究得到的影响上海市土地利用/覆被变化的驱动力因子的综合得分,通过Excel的回归分析功能,建立区域社会-经济-生态复合系统的发展水平(y)与区域耕地面积比例(x)的相关模型,二者的相关关系式为y=-10.948x + 5.8238(R=-0.973**,P<0.01)表明驱动力综合得分和耕地面积比例极相关。两者的相关系数是R2=0.9486。更多还原

【Abstract】 The research on Land use/cover change has become the hot spot of the geography research and frontier issues. It has played an important role in global environmental change and sustainable development research. Remote sensing technology because of its macro, fast, dynamic, large-scale advantages, has become the primary mean of monitoring of land use / cover change.In this article, Shanghai was selected as the researched area, based on the images of 1997 and 2002, maximum likelihood classification and support vector machines were used to extract the main information of land use cover change in Shanghai. Combined with previous information of interpretation of 1987 and 2007, using the land use dynamics and land use degree index, analyzed the change of the temporal and spatial in Shanghai for 20 years. Based on the results of land use / cover change, combined the statistical datum in Shanghai from 1987-2007, the demographic and economic driving force were analyzed. Finally, according to previous principal component analysis, the composite score of driving force of land use cover changes was obtained. With the method of interpretation and calculation, the proportion of cultivated land from 1987 to 2007 in Shanghai was obtained. A model between regional social - economic - Composite index of ecological and land use/ cover change was established.Through this study, the main conclusions were as follows:(1)With the maximum likelihood classification (MLC)and support vector machine (SVM)classification method, the information of land use/ cover change of 1997and 2002 was obtained. Compared the accuracy of MLC and SVM, for the 1997 TM image, using maximum likelihood classification. For the 2002 ETM image, using support vector machine classification. The overall classification accuracy was 88.6734% and 87.3009%, has met the research needs.(2) According to single land use dynamics, integrated land use dynamics and land-use degree, the dynamic changes of land use was analyzed. The results are: the areas of the cultivated land and unused land continued to decline, the areas of urban and rural construction land, woodland, grassland continued to grow. Among them, the change of the forest is the fastest. 20 years, the area of forest increased from 28,906 hectares in 1987 to 118,443 hectares in 2007, the increment is 89,437 hectares, the growth rate is 310%, the annual growth rate is 15.5%; The reduction amount of cultivated land is the maximum, up to 167344 hectares; The increment of urban construction land is the maximum, up to 123788 hectares; The areas of grassland, although growing, the change is slim; The areas of water has experienced increased first and then decreased, but overall the change was slight.(3) Combined with Shanghai’s social and economic statistical data from 1987 to 2007, using statistical regression analysis function of Excel and SPSS, analyzed the dominant driving forces of the land use / cover change. Demographic factors, the model between land use degree and population differentiation、the correlation model between total population and land area were established; Economic factor, the model between the level of economic development and the cultivated area was established. The results showed that: economic development and population growth are the main reasons in Shanghai contributed to land use / cover change. Besides this, the land use / cover change in Shanghai is also being affected by other factors, such as policies and technological progress and other factors.(4) With the previous research "Principal Component Analysis", the overall score of driving forces was obtained. According to the statistical function of Excel, a linear correlation model between regional social-economic-ecological complex system development level (y) and the proportion of cultivated land area (x). The result showed y = 0.1166x-5.53 (R =- 0.973 **, P <0.01), R2 = 0.9384, found that there is a strong correlation between them.更多还原