【作者】 张金莹；

【导师】 周德群；

【作者基本信息】 南京航空航天大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 随着我国近几年国民经济的增长,房地产投资活动日益活跃。但房地产投资的独特性质决定了房地产投资开发具有投资风险大、周期长期性和受环境影响大等特征,房地产业高速发展的背后,所带来的风险也会日益增大。我国房地产业又处于产业发展的初级阶段,迫切需要采用科学的管理方法对房地产投资开发中的风险进行管理。本文首先通过分析房地产投资和房地产投资风险的特殊性以及现行的风险管理的方法,提出了构建适合我国房地产市场特点的投资风险评价的总体思想。以房地产开发周期为基础,将投资风险分为投资决策阶段风险、建设前期阶段风险、建设阶段风险和租售管理阶段风险四个阶段的风险,并对每个阶段的主要风险因素做了相应分析。根据层次分析法(AHP)构造递阶层次模型的思想,按房地产开发周期筛选出4大类和14个评价因素组成房地产投资风险评价指标体系。其次,本文在对以往房地产开发投资风险评价方法归纳总结的基础上,运用基于AHP和GEM的模糊综合评价法,建立了房地产开发项目投资风险的评价模型。指出常用的基于层次分析法(AHP)的模糊综合法中确定权重的AHP法的缺陷,引进了群决策特征根法(GEM)。通过定性定量的对比AHP法和GEM法,对模糊综合评价法进行优化,有效地降低了风险评价中的不确定性成分,完善了房地产投资风险评价模型。最后,本文通过实例验证了模型的实用性和有效性。验证出模型能够良好地综合评价房地产开发项目的风险程度,在预测开发项目风险度方面具有较高的实用价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 Along with the fast development of the national economy in recent years, the investment activities in real estate flourish increasingly. However, the especial characteristics of real estate decide the characteristics of real estate investment and development, such as high risk of investment, long period of exploitation, big affect of investment condition and so on. Behind the high speed development the investment risk is also growing increasingly large. At present, our real estate industry is still on the initial stage, which demands a scientific and systematic management of risk during the development and investment of real estate.Firstly, The paper has studied the methods of risk management and the characteristics of real estate investment and risk, then setting up the collectivity mentality of constructing the risk evaluation system.. According to the lifecycletheory, the paper decompose the investment risk into risk in making stategic decision period, risk in preparing for building period, risk in building period and risk in saling and management period. Also it analysed the central factors in each period. Based on constructing hierarchy structure from Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), the paper select 14 evaluation factors to construct the risk evaluation system.Secondly, based on the summary of previous evaluation methods, the paper used the fuzzy comprehensive assessment model with AHP and GEM to set up the construction of decision model of real estate investment risk. The paper point out the shortcoming of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Based on contrasting the qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis between Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Group Eigenvalue Method (GEM), the paper optimized The Analytic Hierarchy Process in risk evaluation.Finally, the validity and practicalility of the model is verified through the instance in the paper. The result show that the new method can adequately indicate the risk degree of a real estate investment projece. So it is worthful in predict the investment risk of real estate.更多还原