【作者】 刘丽君；

【导师】 甘嵘静；

【作者基本信息】 西南财经大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 随着中国经济的不断发展,人民生活水平的不断提高,对汽车这种奢侈消费品的需求日益增长,这就为中国汽车市场提供了巨大的消费发展空间。但是在中国入世之后受到国外一些大公司的强烈竞争,石油价格不断上升和汽车消费者观念的不断理性化使得中国汽车行业面临空前的激烈竞争,汽车新车型投放市场的风险越来越大。在这种情况下,如何用科学的研究方法来对新车型项目进行风险评价及管理变得越来越重要。本文以项目风险管理为主线,紧扣汽车车型创新,讲述了汽车车型创新项目从项目开始到项目结束整个过程中会产生哪些风险以及如何控制和评价这些风险。本文一共分为六章。第一章讲述了汽车车型创新风险管理的国内外发展概况,提出把汽车车型创新引入风险管理中的理论支撑和现实意义。第二章主要介绍了风险、项目风险以及汽车车型创新项目风险的相关概念,为后面的论述提供了理论基础。第三章主要介绍了汽车车型创新项目会产生哪些风险以及对这些风险的分类、用哪些方法来识别这些风险以及风险如何控制和评价。第四章介绍风险评价的常用方法以及本文需要用到的方法,并做了详细的介绍。第五章用实例来验证方法的可行性和可操作性。采用基于层次分析法的模糊综合评价对各风险指标和总体风险进行了定量分析,分别从宏观经济、可持续发展、国家政策、科技发展、入世、资金、市场、管理和技术九个方面进行了详细的说明。最后得出在这个项目中最需要注意的有哪些风险,希望对以后关于此领域的研究会有所帮助。最后对汽车行业提出了展望,希望中国汽车企业能够以崭新的姿态迎接各方的挑战,在世界汽车市场占领一席之地。更多还原

【Abstract】 More and more people’s requirement of luxurious consumable automobile rise increasingly with the development of economy and the improving of living standard, which provide the huge consumption space to the Chinese Automobile market. But for those companies the risk of localizing a new model in China is also increasing proportionally because of some facts such as the rising of oil price, the impact of joining WTO, the aggravated automobile market competition, the gradually rationalizing Chinese consumers, and so on. In this condition, it becomes more and more important how to manage and evaluate the of new model localization project by using scientific research method.The main clue of the paper is the project risk management. The paper focus on the new model of automobile, and tell of which will bring what kind of risk from the beginning of the project to the end and how to control and evaluate this risks.This paper includes six parts. Chapter one mainly tells us the development background of China and other countries, and bring forward the theory support and practical meanings when bring the new model of automobile in risk management.Interrelated conceptions such as risk, the project risk of and new model risk are including in chapter two.Chapter three tells us that which kind of risk will be produced, how to classify and identify those risks, and how to control and evaluate them.Chapter four introduces the idiomatic methods and those used in this paper in detail.One case is used to verify the feasibility and maneuverability of methods in chapter six. It shows us the quantitative analysis of those risks index and the overall risk in AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method respectively, It elaborates the Nine indicators including macroeconomic, continuous development, technical, national policy, WTO risk, financial, market, management, and technology development in detail. Finally, a reasonable result was concluded.In last part, I put forward the expectation to automotive industry. Hope Chinese automotive enterprises can meet parties challenge with a new attitude, and occupied a place in the world auto market.更多还原