云南省艾滋病时空分析系统的研究与开发

【作者】 陈洪萍；

【导师】 杨昆；

【作者基本信息】 云南师范大学 ， 地图学与地理信息系统， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 目前,云南省对艾滋病流行的研究主要从艾滋病流行病学、行为学、实验研究和临床治疗方面以及从社会学、人口学的角度进行,研究成果大多为分析和研究报告,而在地理信息技术支持下的艾滋病流行的研究却没开展。鉴于地理信息系统(geographic information system,简称GIS)广泛的应用于公共卫生与流行病研究以及在SARS期间许多可借鉴的SARS预警系统的建立,在导师杨昆教授的国家自然科学基金:“云南省艾滋病传播时空分析模型及其地理信息技术支持平台研究”支持下和相关资料收集的基础上,本文将地理信息技术应用于云南省艾滋病流行的时间分布、空间分布及人群分布研究。通过建立HIV/AIDS空间信息库、将艾滋病疫情估计与预测方法与GIS集成和开发HIV/AIDS时空分析系统,直观的显示云南省艾滋病的时空分布规律,帮助政府和相关HIV/AIDS防治机构准确把握HIV/MDS的时空分布规律,为宏观决策支持提供可靠的科学依据及信息技术支持手段。全文共包括六章内容:第1章引言,在综述了GIS在艾滋病预防和控制中的应用、艾滋病数学模型及评估与预测方法以及云南省艾滋病流行特点及其研究现状后,指出了目前研究中存在的不足及有待深化的问题,本文的研究内容、研究方法和技术路线。第2章艾滋病疫情估计与预测模型及其与GIS的集成,介绍了艾滋病疫情估计与预测的3个方法,即AEM、EPP及Spectrum程序后,详细地介绍了将要与GIS集成的艾滋病疫情估计与预测方法WorkBook方法模型,指出使用该模型进行集成的原因,并且就其与GIS的集成方式作了说明;第3章云南省艾滋病专题数据库的设计,包括数据的收集、数据库的设计和数据的存储与访问三部分。将系统数据分为基础地理空间数据库,艾滋病专题数据库和人口专题数据库。第4章描述了云南省艾滋病时空分析系统的设计与开发,包括系统的设计目标,所遵循的设计原则、系统软硬件配置,系统功能设计。系统由GIS基本功能子系统、艾滋病疫情信息查询子系统、艾滋病专题分析系统以及WorkBook数据输入表四部分组成。第5章结论与展望,对研究成果进行了总结,并指出了本系统建设下一步工作建议,以及需进一步研究和解决的问题。综上所述,本研究课题采用组件技术和.NET技术架构,建立了以GIS为基础的云南省艾滋病时空分析系统。该系统是一个简单易用的系统,实现了图形和属性数据间的交互查询功能,艾滋病疫情疫情信息的专题分析,以及艾滋病疫情估计与预测方法WorkBook模型与GIS的集成。艾滋病传播动力学模型与GIS的集成以用Moran’s等方法识别艾滋病疫情空间聚集是以后进一步研究的方向。更多还原

【Abstract】 At present, research on AIDS in Yunnan province is to discuss mainly from aspects of epidemiology of AIDS, behavior, experimental research and clinical treatment. At the same time, the research is also to discuss from angle of sociology and demography. The Main research results are some reports of analysis and research, whereas, the research on AIDS epidemic under the aid of geography information technology does not carry on.GIS have been used in the research of public Health and Epidemic, and during SARS Epidemic Period lots of valuable SARS Surveillance and Precaution System have been established. This thesis is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation Emphases Item of China (30560135), which is our Professor Yang presided, and on base of consulting relevant data, in this paper geography information technology is applied to studies on the spatial distribution, time distribution and populations distribution of AIDS Epidemic in Yunnan province.By Establishing HIV/AIDS spatial information database, integrating system of methods of Estimation and Prediction on AIDS and GIS, developing temporal and spatial analysis system, it is can visually display temporal and spatial Distribution Law, and help the Government and correlated Prevention and control HIV /AIDS Organization to Seize temporal and spatial Distribution Law and Accurate scientific basis was provided for Macro Decision SupportThe full text includes six chapter of text. Chapter one is introduction. After reviewing GIS Application in Prevention and Control of AIDS, math model and Method of AIDS Prediction and Evaluation, and Characteristics and Current advance of study of HIV/AIDS prevalence in Yunnan province. The insufficiency in present research and finance deepening problems in the further are pointed out, And main Procedures, methods and techniques are also given. Chapter three is designing of the AIDS Special Database, including data collecting, database designing, and Storage and Access of data. System data divided into three parts that are basic geography spatial database, the AIDS Special Database and population special database. Chapter four describes the design and development of the system, including the design objective, the design principle to obey, software and hardware requirement. The System is consist of data adding and map manipulating subsystem, HIV/AIDS information query subsystem , HIV/AIDS thematic mapping and the data input table of WorkBook. The fifth chapter is Conclusion and Prospect. The summary of the research of this task is written and the next stage of the sharing system is put forward. The problems waiting to more research and to resolve are listed too.In a word, the system is develop with COM (ArcObjects ) and VB.NET. It is an system of be simple and easy use, it can query spatial information and attribute alternately, make thematic mapping of HIV/AIDS, and integrate WorkBook with GIS. The integration of AIDS spreading dynamics model and GIS, and the use of GIS Geostatistic analysis, for example Moran’s, in HIV/AIDS to identify spatial crowd is the further study.更多还原