【作者】 李小亮；

【导师】 董正信；

【作者基本信息】 河北大学 ， 统计学， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 现代经济的发展很大程度上依赖于可靠而充足的能源供应,而石油又是能源中不可或缺的重要组成部分。哪怕是一次很小的石油供应中断或是价格的波动都可能导致经济和社会的剧烈震荡。因此,石油的安全问题事关国民经济发展全局和整个社会的稳定,研究石油安全问题尤为重要。本文认为,石油安全问题因国而异,因此石油安全的概念也应因国而异。对我国而言,石油安全就是指我国在石油的生产、进口、消费以及国家和社会对其做出的应对措施等各个环节能够从数量和价格上保障和满足本国社会经济持续发展需要的一种能力和状态。现在,许多相关研究机构为了政府和公众的需要都在进行石油安全评价,目的是为了进一步加强国家和社会对本国石油安全状况及其发展趋势的认识和监测调控能力,以便更好地满足国民经济的需求和发展,避免潜在的石油危机风险。本文认为,构建石油安全评价指标体系是评价工作的基础。本文从界定我国石油安全的内涵入手,选取了影响我国石油安全的19个关键指标,其中包括13个定量指标和6个定性指标,通过收集1993年至2006年的相关数据和信息,系统分析了这些指标近十四年来的变化趋势；然后基于PSR模型构建了我国石油安全综合评价指标体系,并在比较各种评价方法的基础上,采用熵值法和灰色关联法的集成对我国的石油安全趋势作了实证研究；最后得出结论：我国从1993年成为石油净进口国以来,来自于石油安全方面的压力在逐步增大,石油安全保障方面的状况也在逐步恶化,而无论是政府还是社会各方面对此做出的响应却并没有跟上前两个方面的变化,从而导致我国石油综合安全度呈下滑趋势。最后,在实证研究的基础上,本文借鉴国外石油安全战略的经验,并结合我国目前实行的石油安全战略,就如何完善石油安全战略提出了相应的对策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 The modern economic development depends on a reliable and adequate supply of energy, and oil is an indispensable component of energy. Even if it is a small oil supply disruption or price fluctuations may result in severe economic and social shocks. Therefore, oil security issue is related to the overall situation of national economic development and social stability, Research on oil security is particularly important.This article points out that the oil security problems vary from country to country, so the concept of oil security varies from country to country. For our country, the concept of oil security is that Chinese oil production, import, consumption, as well as national and community’s responses can make sure to protect and meet the needs of sustainable socio-economic development in terms of the volume and price.Today, many countries have been carried out the oil safety evaluation to meet the needs of the government and the public, aim to further strengthen the assessment and monitoring capabilities of national oil security situation and the trend, in order to take into account how to meet domestic needs and development, then to avoid the oil potential crisis. This article holds that the oil security evaluation index system is foundation.From the concept of China’s oil security, this paper selects 19 key indicators which mainly affect China’s oil security, including the 13 quantitative indicators and 6 qualitative indicators. First, through the collection of data and related information from 1993 to 2006, this paper systematically analyzes these factors’ trends over the last 14 years. Then, the authors establish petroleum security evaluation index system based on the PSR framework, and perform empirical study on China’s oil security trends from 1993 to 2006 with entropy and gray correlation method in the comparison of different methods of calculation. In conclusion, Results show that since China has become a net oil importer in 1993,the pressure of oil security has gradually increased, and the state of oil security has gradually deteriorated. However, the response of the government and the society did not keep up with the changes above, which result in the decline in the comprehensive evaluation of petroleum security in China.Finally, on the basis of empirical research, and learning from foreign experience in the oil security strategy, this paper puts forward policy proposals on how to improve oil security strategy with China’s current implementation of the oil security strategy.更多还原