【作者】 王传雨；

【导师】 周燕；

【作者基本信息】 哈尔滨工业大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 作为我国长期实施的一项战略性贸易政策,出口退税政策一直是我国调控外向型经济的重要政策手段之一。出口退税政策自实施以来确实对我国的经济起到了非常大的促进作用,特别对外贸出口以及产业结构转变两方面的经济效应是最为突出的,但是近些年来,国家对出口退税政策调整非常频繁,这也不免对宏观经济及企业产生了一些负面影响,本文正是在这样的背景下,用实证的方法分析了出口退税政策的经济效应。本文首先对我国出口退税政策的发展历程进行了回顾,将我国出口退税政策的调整过程划分为整体性调整和结构性调整两种类型,并相应分析了调整的经济背景,接着从理论上阐述了出口退税政策的经济效应,从而为后面的实证部分奠定了理论基础。本文研究出口退税政策的经济效应主要是从两方面着手:一方面研究出口退税政策对外贸出口的影响,因为促进出口是出口退税政策最直接的效应,考虑到我国的出口退税政策调整的滞后性,在对其影响出口的分析时纳入了出口退税变量的滞后项,选用我国1994-2008年的全国总量数据进行实证研究,从而更客观合理的得出了出口退税政策对出口有一定的促进效应,并且得到出口退税变量滞后一期项的影响比当期的影响更为显著,这也表明了出口退税的激励作用在我国具有明显的滞后性;另一方面研究了出口退税政策对产业结构优化的影响,运用我国2006年9月至2008年12月的主要行业出口额与出口退税率的月度数据建立面板数据模型,考察了出口退税对产业结构的影响作用,得出2007年7月国家进行的大范围的出口退税率的调整对我国的产业结构起到了一定的优化作用,但不同行业所得到的优化结果差异较大,并分析了原因。最后根据实证分析结果,对我国出口退税政策进行了评价,并相应的从政府层面和企业层面,提供了应对国家出口退税政策变化的一些可行性措施和建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 As a long-term strategic trade policy, the export tax rebate policy has been one of the important policy instruments to control the foreign-oriented economy in China. Since the export tax rebate policy has been implemented, it actually played a very large role in China’s economy, particularly in the effects of export and the industrial structure of foreign trade. But in recent years, the government has frequently adjusted the export tax rebate policy, which also bring the macroeconomic and business some adverse effects. This paper is against this background to study on the effects of the export tax rebate policy.This paper begins from the development process of export tax rebate policy, and divided the process of adjustment into two types, one is the overall adjustment, the other is the structural adjustment. Then from the theory of the export tax rebate policy on the economic effects, which lay behind the empirical part of the theoretical basis. In this paper, the author will study on the economic effects of the export tax rebate policy from two sides. On the one hand, reseach on the export, because promoting the export is the most direct effect of the export tax rebate policy. Considering the delay of the policy effect, plus the lag to analyze the influnce. Based on the survey of the export data from 1994-2008, we can get a objective and rational conclusion that the export rebate policy has a strong effect on export, and the lag of it has more influnce on export than itself, which reasonably explains the export tax rebate with the lag in our country. On the other hand, studied the export tax rebate policy on the impact of industrial structure, then use the monthly data of the export and the export tax rebate rate in major sectors from September 2006 to December 2008 to estabalish a panel data model, which reached a conclusion that the government widely adjusting the rebate rates in July 2007 has made some optimized effect, but the different sectors has different optimized results. Based on the above analysis of the outcome, the author evalues the export tax rebate policy and provides a number of recommendations for the government and export enterprises.更多还原