【作者】 丛培栋；

【导师】 张方华；

【作者基本信息】 苏州大学 ， 企业管理， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 随着市场竞争日趋激烈,企业需要寻找一种更为有效的方式提升管理水平。实践证明采用供应链管理方式成为企业提高自身竞争力的有效途径之一,它为企业间协作提供了更加便利的平台。随着信息技术的不断进步和经营环境的竞争加剧,供应链管理已经成为企业获得竞争优势的关键因素之一。随着供应链层数的增加,供应链的成员企业越来越多,供应链的结构日趋复杂,而供应链的复杂性导致了供应链中的风险。本文介绍了供应链风险管理的研究背景,对国内外研究状况进行了综述,同时介绍了供应链、供应链管理以及风险分析的相关理论知识。提出了普遍性的供应链风险管理的过程,主要包括供应链风险识别、风险估计、风险评价以及风险的预防与控制这四大环节。本文首先阐述了传统的基于模糊综合评价法的供应链风险评价模型,介绍了模型中权值及隶属函数的确定方法,并分析了传统的模糊综合评价法所不具有的时变性、对环境因素弱的应变能力以及采用自适应信号处理的先进思想,根据最小均方误差准则,提出了一种全新的模糊评价算法,该算法因素集的权重可以根据时间的推移逐渐逼近最佳值,从而提高了评估模型的准确性和实用性。本文推导出的自适应模糊评价法能够降低初始权重设计不合理对评测结果所带来的影响,设计上引入了闭环反馈的思想使得评测结果更稳定,而权重参数的不断更新使得系统具有时变的能力。这些所具备的优点能够为企业提供更准确的评价结果,对企业的发展也具有更大的参考价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the competitive of market increasing, companies need to find a more effective way to enhance the management level. It has been proved that using of supply chain management enterprises can improve their competitiveness in an effective way to one of its inter-firm collaboration provides a more convenient platform. As information technology continues to progress, for the purpose that increasing competition and enhancing business environment, supply chain management has become a business gain a competitive advantage, one of the key factors. As the supply chain, the number of layers, the members of the supply chain more and more enterprises, supply chain structure is becoming more complex and the complexity of supply chains has led to supply chain risks.This article describes the supply chain risk management research background, research situation at home and abroad were reviewed at the same time introduced the supply chain, supply chain management and risk management related to theoretical knowledge. Put forward the universal supply chain risk management process, the key including supply chain risk identification, risk assessment, risk assessment and risk prevention and control of these four areas. This paper first describes the traditional fuzzy comprehensive evaluation based on supply chain risk assessment model, introduced in the model weights, the determination of membership function method and analysis of the traditional fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method which does not have the time variability of environmental factors, the weak adaptability, adaptive signal processing advanced ideas, according to minimum mean square error criteria, proposed a new fuzzy evaluation algorithm that the weight of the factor set based on the passage of time gradually approaching the optimal value, This is to some extent improved the accuracy and usefulness of evaluation model.In this paper the design of adaptive fuzzy evaluation method can reduce the initial weights of the evaluation results of an unsuitable design of the impact of design companies to introduce the idea of closed-loop feedback makes the evaluation results more stable, while the weight parameters of the continuously updated makes the system with time-varying capacity. These advantages are available to provide enterprises with a more accurate evaluation of results, the development of enterprises also have a greater reference value.更多还原