【作者】 王俊光；

【导师】 孔荣；

【作者基本信息】 西北农林科技大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 随着我国经济的飞速发展,对能源的需求日益增加,许多大型水库的修建,极大的缓解了我国的能源压力。然而,水电资源开发的同时也带来了一个重大问题——库区移民问题。数以千万计的移民“舍小家、顾大家”,为国家经济建设作出了重大贡献。但由于多种原因,目前许多库区移民的生产生活条件依然普遍较差,有相当多的移民还生活在贫困中,库区和移民安置区基础设施薄弱,经济社会发展滞后,已成为制约区域经济发展和影响社会稳定的重要问题。新中国成立以来,全国进行了大规模的水利水电建设,共造成了2200多万库区移民,其中绝大多数都是农村移民。因此,对库区农村移民风险的防范进行研究是迫切而必要的。库区农村移民工程是一项涉及政治、经济、社会、人口、资源、环境与工程技术多学科的复杂系统工程。本文在查阅了大量的文献资料的基础上,吸收库区移民的最新实践成果,以向家坝库区农村移民为实例,从系统的角度对库区农村移民风险的防范进行研究。首先对库区农村移民风险进行了概述,调查和分析了向家坝库区农村移民的情况,对库区农村移民风险进行辨识和并应用相关的方法来进行评估,提出库区农村移民风险的防范措施。第一章是本文的整体框架,介绍了本文研究的背景、目的和意义,对国内外相关研究动态进行了评析,明确了本文的研究思路、方法和创新点。第二章在介绍库区移民内涵的基础上,总结出了库区移民风险客观性、社会性、长期性、规律性等特征,并重点阐述了世界银行社会学与社会政策专家迈克M.塞尼(Michael M.Cernea)提出的移民的贫困、风险与重建理论,即IRR模型,并且作为本文研究的理论依据。第三章首先简要的回顾了我国的库区移民之路;再分析了向家坝库区农村移民的环境容量,明确了向家坝库区农村移民安置区的环境容量能够承载其移民的数量;最后通过实证调研对研究区域的农村移民情况进行分析,为向家坝库区农村移民的风险分析和评估提供数据来源和实证支持。第四章从系统理论角度对向家坝库区农村移民风险进行辨识,按照移民风险的领域把库区农村移民风险分为环境性风险、社会性风险、经济性风险和政策性风险四种风险类型。在IRR模型提出的八种风险指标的基础上,即丧失土地、失业、无家可归、边缘化、食物没有保障、发病率增加、失去享有公共资源的权利和社会解体,结合中国库区农村移民的特征对IRR模型进行了修正,增加了失去财产、政策执行偏差、合法利益受侵害、环境变差四个风险指标,建立了向家坝库区农村移民的风险评估体系,采用德尔菲法对向家坝库区农村移民风险进行评估,得出了向家坝库区农村移民风险为中等风险的结论。第五章基于前文的分析,针对库区农村移民存在的四种风险,提出相应的防范措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the rapid economic development of China, there is an increasing demand for energy. Although the establishments of many large-scale reservoir have alleviated China’s Energy Intensity. Hydropower resources development brings about a serious problem– the Reservoir Area resettlement. In order to support National economic construction, tens of thousands of rural migrants have abandoned their homes,Due to many reasons, the production and living conditions of the migrants are basically lacking that quite a number of those migrants are still living in poverty and the weak infrastructure in the reservoir and resettlement areas and the lagging economic development there have greatly restricted the regional economic development and affected the social stability, ever since the founding of the People’s Republic of China ,the large-scale water conservancy and hydropower construction has caused more that 22 millions of people to resettle and most of them are rural migrants. Therefore, the research on the Risk Prevention of Rural migrants in the reservoir area is necessary.The project of rural migrants in the reservoir areas is a complex issue of politics; economy.society.population.resources and multi-disciplinary engineering and technology. This article will take xiangjiaba rural migrants in the reservoir area to carry out the research on the Risk Prevention of Rural migrants in the reservoir area systematically based on the abundant references to relative literature and the latest results of reservoir area resettlements,Research begins with the overview of risk of reservoir area resettlements which includes the investigation and analysis of rural migrants in the xiangjiaba reservoir area; the reorganization of the risk ;the related assessment of the risk and the method for the risk prevention.Chapter 1 is the overall framework of this article, introducing the background; the purpose and the significance of the research and assessment to the relational foreign researches and making it clear about the methods and ideas as well as the innovation of the research.In Chapter 2, we have generalized that Reservoir Area resettlement is objective, social ,long-term and regular etc. Besides which ,we have stressed the elaboration on IRR (Impoverishment Risks and Reconstruction) model that Dr.Michael M.Cernea has put forward,who is an expert on sociology and social philosophy . IRR is what the study and research theoretically based on.In Chapter 3,firstly, we have a brief review on the course of Reservoir Area resettlement in China; secondly we have another analysis of the environmental capacity which shows the certainty for xiangjiaba Reservoir Area to take the current input of migrants. lastly, we provide the risk analysis and assessment of rural migrants in the xiangjiaba reservoir area with data sources and empirical research support through the empirical research on the situation of rural migrants of the study area.In chapter 4 ,we have systematically identified migration risks and have it devided into 4 types,which are social, environmental ,economic and political risk.Based on the eight risk indicators in IRR Model ,which are Landlessness;Joblessness; Homelessness; Marginalization; Food insecurity; Increased morbidity and mortality; Loss of access to common property resources; and Community Disarticulation, we have rectified IRR Model by adding Loss of Property,Ineffective implementation of policy,Infringement of Legal Rights,and Environmental Variation according to the characteristics of the reservoir area resettlements in China.thus we have established the Risk Assessment System of rural migrants in the xiangjiaba reservoir area. in the meantime,we have concluded that the migration risk of xiangjiaba reservoir area is medium by Delphi Method.in chapter 5,we put forward the preventive measures according to the four risks added above .更多还原