【作者】 刘涛；

【导师】 谢永生；

【作者基本信息】 西北农林科技大学 ， 土地资源与空间信息技术， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 土地是人类赖以生存和发展的重要资源基础。土地利用已成为当今地学研究热点和前沿之一。粮食问题是一个全球性的问题。作为第一人口大国的中国来说,它更是一个事关国家安危、经济进退,民生祸福以及杜会稳定的大问题,也是本国政府和理论工作者高度关注和重视的一大课题。汉台区是陕西省的一个典型粮食生产基地,也是今年来发展很快的地面城郊农业区,该区域粮食供需与土地利用方式的动态变化情况基本能够代表当前及未来汉中盆地粮食安全面临的问题,因此本文在综述目前国内外耕地数量变化与粮食安全研究的基础上,在汉台区选择不同自然社会经济条件下的典型乡(镇)-村-农户进行调查,利用数理统计原理和工具,采用相关分析、因子分析和回归分析相结合的方法,研究陕西省汉台区耕地数量与粮食安全现状,分析耕地数量动态变化的影响因素,探索粮食生产关键限制因子,重点分析耕地数量动态变化对粮食安全的影响,剖析该区域粮食生产潜力,提出潜力实现的条件和措施,从而为实现该区域及整个陕西省的粮食安全提供科技支撑。经研究取得了如下主要结论:(1)据分析,汉台区人均粮食仅为229kg,远小于国家提出的小康水平400kg/人,汉台区已削弱了商品粮生产基地的地位。(2)农户调查中无耕地撂荒,以村或农户为单位的耕地出租、转租较少。农民对耕地的重视程度较高,主要是汉台区农业产业化提高了农户收入,再加上粮价和种地补贴不断提高。(3)在耕地增加的因素中,土地整理是全区耕地增加的主导因素;土地开发可增加部分耕地,但对生态环境影响较大,应慎重。在耕地减少的因素中,农业产业结构调整占主导地位,其次是生态退耕和建设占用耕地。(4)未来30年粮食缺口较大,口粮基本能够满足,但是饲料粮和酿造粮等粮食存在严重不足,因此需要加强汉台区耕地保护,扩大粮食播种面积。(5)按90%自给率计算,要实现2010年宽裕型和2020年小康型的总产目标,必须保证耕地面积分别为29423 hm2和31905 hm2。(6)据调查,汉台区调查农户人均存粮为204kg,户均存粮为890kg,基本上能满足农户粮食需求。(7)据调查,汉台区小麦有40.98%的增长潜力;稻谷有4.16%的增长潜力,粮食总产有10.83%的增长潜力。更多还原

【Abstract】 Land is the human survival and development of an important resource base. Land useing has become a forefront of research and one of hot spots. Food problem is a global problem. As the first country with the large population of China, it is a matter of national security, economic advance and retreat, the people’s livelihood will be good and bad fortune, the stability issue, National government and the theory is also a high degree of concern and importance to workers in a major subject.HanTai District of ShanXi Province is a typical agricultural demonstration zones , the regional food supply and demand on behalf of the basic food security situation in HanZhong Basin, this paper both at home and abroad in the Summary of the number of cultivated land change and food security study, based on the choice of the Han District different nature of the typical socio-economic conditions of the township (town) - the village - to investigate farmers to use the principle of mathematical statistics and tools, the use of correlation analysis, factor analysis and regression analysis method of combining study in ShanXi Province ,the number of Chinese-Taiwan area of arable land and food security status, analysis of arable land changes in the number of dynamic factors, and explore the key limiting factor for food production, focusing on analysis of the number of dynamic changes of arable land for food security, analyzes the potential for food production in the region, the potential for the realization of the conditions and measures, so as to achieve the and the whole region of Shanxi Province to provide scientific and technological support of food security. After studying the main conclusions obtained are as follows:(1) According to the analysis, Only 229kg per capita grain on HanTai, is much smaller than the well-off countries, the level of 400kg / person, Chinese Taiwan, the district has undermined the status of commodity grain production bases.(2) Survey farmers without land abandonment, Farmers in the village or unit of arable land for lease, sublease less.Farmers of the importance of a higher degree of arable land, mainly Han District of the agricultural industry to improve the farmers income, combined with grain prices and rising farm subsidies.(3) In the cause of increasing cultivated land, the region’s arable land consolidation is the dominant factor of the increase; part of land development to increase arable land, but a greater impact on the ecological environment should be careful. Factors contributing to the reduction in arable land, agriculture-dominated industrial restructuring, followed by the ecological and construction of farmland for farmland.(4) The next 30 years large food gap to meet basic food, but food and feed grain production, such as the existence of a serious shortage of food, so the need to strengthen the protection of cultivated land Han District, the expansion of the sown area of grain.(5) self-sufficiency rate of 90% according to calculation, in order to achieve well-off in 2010 and in 2020 the total output of a well-off-type goal, we must ensure that the area of arable land and 29423 hm2, respectively 31905 hm2.(6) According to the survey, farmers survey 204kg on HanTai, average for per capita stocks stocks for 890kg, basically to meet the food needs of farmers.(7) According to the survey, Chinese has 40.98% of wheat growth potential; rice are 4.16 percent growth potential, total grain output, there are 10.83% of the growth potential.更多还原