【作者】 卞德鹏；

【导师】 常庆瑞；

【作者基本信息】 西北农林科技大学 ， 地图学与地理信息系统， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 耕地是人类赖以生存和发展的物质基础,对耕地数量变化及其驱动机制的研究已经成为可持续发展领域的热点问题。黄土丘陵沟壑区是我国耕地变化最快的区域之一,且耕地面积中坡耕地占较大比例,且生产力水平低,由于人类对坡耕地的掠夺式开发,导致水土流失和土壤退化十分严重。因此,加强对黄土丘陵沟壑区耕地动态变化及驱动因子的研究分析,对实现该区耕地资源的合理利用和开发有重要的理论和现实意义。本文基于吴起县1950-2005年统计和普查资料,分析了吴起县55年以来耕地数量变化及区域差异,探讨影响耕地数量变化的自然、经济、人口等驱动因子;并应用一元线性回归模型、指数曲线模型、灰色系统模型等模型对耕地资源变化趋势进行预测。其次,运用定性与定量分析相结合的方法对耕地数量变化的驱动因素的类型、作用机制及方式、强度做出分析;建立耕地面积变化驱动因子的多元线性回归模型。利用相关统计资料所取得的成果如下:(1)20世纪50年代以来,吴起县耕地面积总体上经历了快速减少、震荡波动、急剧增加和持续缓慢减少4个阶段,全县耕地面积由1950年的33 240 hm~2减少2005年的20080hm~2,净减少耕地13150hm~2,减幅达39.6%,尤以1999当年净减少最多,达12400hm~2,是吴起50多年来耕地减少最为剧烈的年份。(2)由于人口的快速增长和耕地总量的波动减少,人均耕地面积除个别年份出现反弹回升外,总体呈明显的下降趋势。人均耕地面积从1950年的0.861hm~2减少到2005年人均耕地面积0.157hm~2,55年净减少0.704hm~2,减幅达81.7%。(3)通过主成分分析,将影响吴起耕地数量变化的一系列驱动因子归纳为社会经济发展、人口压力、农业科技进步因素。从单个因子看,耕地数量对总人口数、城市化水平、第三产业产值、农业机械总动力较为敏感,尤其对城市化水平最为敏感。(4)研究发现区域经济发展与区域耕地数量变化构密切相关,经济发展对耕地变化不仅有负面作用,还在一定程度上存在着正面作用,应采取有效措施保护吴起耕地资源,并进行合理开发,提高耕地利用效益。更多还原

【Abstract】 Land is the material basis of human’s life and development, thus, the study on the number and driving mechanism of land became the hot topic of sustainable development. Loess hilly-gully region is one of the most changeable fields in our countries land, and the slope land has lager proportion in the land with the poor productive forces. The predatory use of land led to the seriously soil erosion and degradation. Therefore, enhancing the analysis and study to driving factors and variety law of loess hilly-gully region land has the academic and practical significance to the rational use of the realization of land resources and the sustainable development of regional economy.Farmland was the national and provincial land to reduce the underlying trend change, based on 1950-2005 statistics and census information of Wuqi County, firstly, the changes in the number of farmland since Wuqi County 56a and regional disparities were examined, and further the impact of changes were explored in the number of farmland natural, economic, demographic and other driving factors and then the tendency of farmland area change was predicted using simple linear regression model, index curve model and grey systematic model. Secondly, the types of driving forces, the mechanism and way of interaction and intensity were analyzed by principal component analysis (PCA) methods, and multiple linear regression models were established on the basis of farmland area change and driving forces. Finally, the conclusions are gained as follows:(1)The 20th century since the 1950s, in the whole, farmland area in Wuqi County has experienced four phases: rapidly decreasing, fluctuation, dramatically increasing and slowly reducing. The total farmland reduced from 33 240hm2 in 1950 to 20 080hm2. The reduction was especially dramatic in 1999.(2) With the rapid increasing of people and the decreasing of farmland, the farmland per capita was generally decreasing. It was from 0.861 hm~2 in 1950 to 0.157 hm~2. During the period, the net reduction is 0.704 hm~2.(3) Using principal component analysis (PCA) methods, the changes affect the number of Wuqi County farmland factors were grouped into 3 categories such as the development of society and economy, the pressure of population and the progress of agricultural science and technology. In the view of individual factors, the change was sensitive to the total population, urbanization, and the output of tertiary industry and the total power of agricultural machinery, especially urbanization.(4) It was found that the development of regional economy and the form of regional structure are closely related to land use. The economic development on farmland change not only has a negative role, to a certain extent, there was also a positive role. So, on the one hand, practical and feasible actions should be taken to protect the limited farmland resources. On the other hand, farmland can be rationally developed to improve its utilization benefits.更多还原