【作者】 袁雯；

【导师】 曾旗；

【作者基本信息】 河南理工大学 ， 企业管理， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 煤矿安全事故频发是我国煤矿安全生产管理工作面临的一个重大难题。通过分析我国煤炭工业在国民经济发展中的重要地位,指出煤矿安全是煤矿企业健康、可持续发展的关键问题,而建立和完善安全法规体系、加强安全评价技术及其方法的研究,是煤矿安全发展的必然趋势。另外,由于煤矿生产是一个动态过程,我们不仅要了解现在的安全生产情况,更要预测未来,因此有必要构建煤矿安全预警系统掌控煤矿安全的非常态波动。本文以确保煤矿安全为主要目的,对构建煤矿安全评价方法和预警模型进行了系统分析。首先,对安全评价和预警系统研究进行回顾,指出了国内外研究中存在的不足,为下文安全评价方法和预警系统研究奠定基础。其次,对煤矿安全事故产生机理从事故成因、人因失误、事故致因三个角度进行了广泛而细致的分析,为本文分析和构建煤矿安全评价和预警模型提供了充足的理论基础。第三,在充分考虑影响煤矿安全各种因素的基础上,构建了较为全面的煤矿安全评价指标体系,并运用层次分析法对5类25个指标进行安全评价,得出安全评价指数。第四,构建了基于神经网络理论的煤矿安全预警模型。针对上述研究,本文从宏观、中观和微观三个层面提出了抑制我国煤矿安全事故发生的对策和建议。最后,以某国有重点企业为对象进行实证研究,所得出的安全评价和预警分析的结果与该企业实际情况基本吻合,表明本项研究所建立的安全评价模型和预警模型有效可行,实用价值较高。更多还原

【Abstract】 The coal mine safety accident is a significant difficult problem of coal mine safety manufacturing management to face in our country. By analyzing our country coal industry important position in national economy, pointing out the question of sustainable which is, coal mine safety is colliery undertaking health, sustained development. Also, building and perfecting safe law and regulation system, sharpening safety appraises technology and their method, which is the inevitable trend in coal mine safety development. Other ways, because of the coal mine is a development process, not only we need to know safety work situation now, but also need to forecast future. Therefore, be necessary constructing the coal mine safety early warning system to control the coal mine safety random fluctuation.The main body of this report is taking coal mine safety as major objective, analysis on structuring coal mine safety appraising method and early warning model. Firstly, recollect the analysis of safe valuation and early warning system to point out the existence deficiency between China and abroad. To establish a basis for studying the safety appraises method and early warning system. Secondly, take a broad and meticulous analysis on coal mine safety accident mechanism from three part, which are accident cause of formation, accident cause of artificial factor and the coalmine accident causation theory. This sufficient rationale being used to analyze and structure coal mine safety valuation and the early warning model. The third, basic on consider the various factor affecting coal mine safety to structure all-round coal mine safety appraising index system. And wield the arrangement of ideas analysis law to carry out safe valuation on 5 kinds and 25 indies, to get the exponent of safety appraises. And the forth, take neural networks as basis; make use of BP neural networks to apply to early warning field maturity, discuses the coal mine safety early warning model. Be aimed at above-mentioned, this report suggests countermeasure and suggestion to restraint our country coal mine safety accident happens from macroscopic and microcosmic. At last, demonstration study taking some key state-owned enterprise, the analytical result of safe valuation and early warning is reality fits basically with this enterprise. Indicate effective and practical value, which this report is building the safety appraises model and the early warning model.更多还原