基于BSC、Fuzzy-AHP及PCA综合评价体系的福建省港口物流发展研究

【作者】 彭书渊；

【导师】 杨树青；

【作者基本信息】 华侨大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 2009年2月25日国务院常务会议审议并原则通过物流业调整振兴规划,标志着现代物流业作为一个新型的产业部门和国民经济的重要支柱,即将迎来新一轮的快速发展。发展现代化的港口物流是拉动港口地区经济增长和增强港口城市综合竞争力的重要手段。发展第五大港口群——东南沿海港口群是我国战略发展中的重要组成部分。根据我党“十七大”报告的指导精神,福建省政府于2009年2月出台了《福建省沿海港口布局规划(2008-2020年)》,从而保障国家战略,推进海西战略的顺利实施,促进港口物流业更快更好的发展。08年以来世界金融危机席卷全球,国际贸易和港口航运受到严重影响。福建省的港口物流发展面临挑战和机遇,此时对福建省港口物流发展进行系统研究更具有重要的现实意义。国内外学者对于港口物流的发展已有不少研究成果,但是定量研究仍然显得不足,只有少数的专家和学者致力于福建省港口物流发展的研究。本文从理论和实证两个方面对福建省港口物流发展进行了较为深入的综合性研究。全文包括绪论共七章,主要研究内容可概括如下:1.理论探讨。在对物流理论进行梳理的基础上,探讨了港口与现代物流的关系;提出了港口物流的概念、特点,为论文展开提供了理论基础。2.现状与趋势分析。福建省属外贸型经济,港口是物资、人员、资金等对外交流的最前沿阵地与主要载体。文章首先将福建省的港口物流发展同国内排名前两名的深圳港和上海港进行横向对比;然后运用SWOT态势分析法,分析了福建省在发展港口物流过程中所存在的问题。3.实证分析。在与国内重要港口上海港和深圳港进行比较分析的基础上,构建了福建省港口物流发展的综合评价体系。首先,文章基于平衡计分卡(BSC)原理,从福建省发展港口物流的远景出发综合选取港口物流发展的评价指标;其次,运用层次分析与模糊数学评判法(Fuzzy-AHP)构建福建省港口物流发展综合评价模型,并对主观评价指标进行运算;再次,运用主成分分析法(PCA)对该模型的客观评价指标进行数据分析;最后,得到福建省三大港的港口物流发展的综合得分,并作出了客观的评价。4.对策建议。根据评价结果及指标分析,本文从发展海西战略,积极应对世界金融危机的角度出发,给出了福建省港口群发展港口物流的若干对策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 February 25, 2009 the State Council approved the adjustment and revitalization plan of the logistics industry, which means that modern logistics is becoming a new industry and a pillar of the national economy in China. Modern port logistics is an important means making economy grow and improving overall competitiveness of port cities. The development of the fifth-largest ports group, the ports on the southeast coast of China is an important part of national strategy. According to the spirit of the report of 17th C.P.C National Congress, the government of Fujian Province promulgated“the layout of the coastal ports in Fujian Province (2008-2020)”in February 2009 to confront with the World financial crisis and the recession of the maritime transportation.The study on the port logistics development of Fujian province has a practical significance while the Fujian ports’development takes an concerned role of the national strategy, as well as the Strategy of the west side of the Taiwan Straits composes the 17th report of the C.P.C.There is a lot of research on the port logistics that has been done by the domestic and foreign scholars. However, it still lacks of quantitative study in this field, especially for the study of the Fifth ports group, the ports group of the Fujian province. In this paper, it makes more in-depth comprehensive study on the port logistics for the port logistics of Fujian province by theoretical and empirical aspects, which contains six chapters including the introduction. This paper can be divided into four parts as followed:The first part is making the survey of document theory, comprehensive utilizing theory system in and abroad. On the basis of the recent theories, this paper discusses the relationship between logistics and port; defines the concept and characteristics of the port logistics.The second part is the status quo and trend analysis of the Fujian province. As the export-oriented economy, port is the most major carrier and forward position of the materials, personnel and capital exchange. After comparing the port logistics development with the top two ports in china, which is Shenzhen Port and Shanghai Port, the paper analyzes the port logistics of Fujian province by SWOT analysis system.The third part is the Empirical analysis. On the basis of the comparative analysis of existing domestic port logistics evaluation system, the paper establishes the comprehensive evaluation model to study the port logistics of Fujian province. First of all, this paper bases on the Balanced Score Card theory (BSC) to select the evaluation indexes from the developing perspective of port logistics of Fujian province. Then the paper constructs the comprehensive evaluation model by Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), and processes the subjective indicators by using Fuzzy Mathematics Analyze; Thirdly, the paper processes the object indicators by using the Principal Component Analysis (PCA); Finally, the development condition of three major ports in Fujian province has been figured out by the comprehensive evaluation model.The forth part is suggestions and advises. Based on the Strategy of the west side of the Taiwan Straits, the paper gives several suggestions to promote the development of the port logistics of Fujian province.更多还原