【作者】 王睿；

【导师】 沈明玉； 王荣钊；

【作者基本信息】 合肥工业大学 ， 计算机技术， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 巢湖,位于安徽省中部,因形似鸟巢而得名,与洞庭湖、鄱阳湖、太湖、洪泽湖被誉为中国五大淡水湖。近年来湖泊周边污染加剧,水质严重下降,富营养化现象比较严重。本文根据巢湖2006~2007年的水质监测资料,利用模糊数学评价方法,建立巢湖水环境质量综合评价模型。评价结果表明巢湖湖体的主要污染物为氨氮和总磷,运用此方法得出的评价结果与实际监测结果基本一致。现阶段必须对流域内的污染进行有效控制,防止富营养化的加剧和恶化。在水质预测方面本文根据灰色数学理论,建立了灰色预测模型。选取南淝河入湖区2007年1至10月的监测数据,利用该模型对DO、chl_a、NH3-N、CODMn等水质指标在11月和12月期间的水质进行了模拟预测,并采用后验差法对模型进行精度分析。在论文中由于选取的水质监测数据还不够完整,直接影响预测结果;当水质指标的样本数据变化波动较大时,模型的精度和预测精度都较差。通过巢湖污染现状,对水质有一个总体把握,为巢湖环境规划、环境管理及决策者提供一个可靠的科学理论依据。用灰色预测模型预测水质的变化趋势,使人们充分认识到巢湖水质恶化问题的严峻性及开展其水环境的保护修复工作的必要性。更多还原

【Abstract】 Chao Lake which got its name for its shape being like bird’s nest is located in the middle of Anhui Province . It is known as one of China’s five major freshwater lakes together with Dongting Lake, Poyang Lake, Tai Lake and Hongzhe Lake.In recent years, the water quality of Chao Lake deteriorates and the eutrophication becomes very serious because of the aggravation of the pollution of its surrounding area.This paper builds the model of comprehensive evaluation according to the monitoring data of water quality from year 2006 to 2007 of Chao Lake and the fuzzy mathematical theory .It shows the main contaminations of the river are NH3-N and TP,which is almost identical to the monitoring result.Therefore ,we must control pollution in the drainage area to prevent the worsening of eutrophication at the present time.On water quality forecast, this dissertation builds the Grey Model according to the grey mathematical theory. By choosing the data monitored from the Nanfei River from janurary to octorber in 2007,the Grey Model(GM) is used to simulate and predict such water quality parameter as DO、chl_a、NH3-N、CODMn of Chao Lake in November and December , and then the precision of the model is analyzed by adopting parameter identification. In the dissertation, the chosen monitoring data of the water quality is not complete and the prediction result is directly influenced because of the wide fluctuation of the sample data.Through the current contamination of Chao Lake and the overview of the water quality, this dissertation provides a reliable theory foundation for the designer, the administrator and the policy-maker. And by showing the tendency analysis of water quality with the grey prediction model, it also calls people to fully understand the seriousness of the deterioration of the water quality of the Chao Lake and the necessity of water conservation.更多还原