【作者】 向凤兰；

【导师】 刘清；

【作者基本信息】 武汉理工大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 随着改革开放继续深入,我国的经济继续保持着平稳较快发展势头,带来了对能源和交通的旺盛需求,也给长江干线水运生产带来了充足的货源,长江黄金水道日益显现出其强大的生命力和发展优势。然而2007年4月开始爆发的美国次级按揭贷款危机(简称次贷危机)使得美国经济增长疲软,从而拖缓了世界经济增长速率,我国内河航运业也在一定程度上受到影响。受金融危机影响范围扩大和影响加深等多重因素影响,长江干散货运输市场需求大幅萎缩,货物运输量从高位快速回落,增长速度大幅放缓。长江干散货运输企业,特别是民营干散货运输企业,正面临着严峻的考验和挑战,也面临着难得的发展机遇。本文通过对长江干线上一家民营干散货运输企业——CHX公司发展的研究,为民营干散货运输企业在当前形势下应对经济形势的挑战和机遇并实现自身的进一步发展提供一些参考和借鉴。文章在对长江典型民营干散货运输企业——CHX公司的发展历程的了解基础上,详细分析了CHX公司发展中存在的问题,其中既有民营航运企业所共有的问题,也有CHX公司所特有的问题。然后,对CHX公司的内外部发展环境进行了详细分析。首先采用PEST模型阐述了国家宏观环境,并从长江干散货运输市场的发展状况、市场特点、以及沿海干散货运输、长江干散货运输和江海直达运输三方面的竞争状况着手分析了江海直达干散货运输企业CHX公司所处的复杂的市场环境。然后,分析了公司的内部发展环境,主要分析了这几个方面的内容:一是企业基本发展条件;二是企业的主要生产指标;三是基于价值链的企业核心竞争力分析;四是企业的战略目标。并用SWOT-PEST矩阵分析表来综合阐述了CHX公司发展的内外部环境。论文采用回归分析预测法建立了一元回归预测模型来预测公司近期2009年、2010年及中长期2015年、2020年公司的货运需求。未来,CHX公司的发展既面临货运需求有保障、通航条件改善等带来的新机遇,也面临着经济危机对经营效益的负面影响,以及内部管理机制不健全的压力,公司发展前景良好,但应规范内部管理,增强企业竞争实力才能抓住机遇,实现效益最大化。在以上CHX公司发展环境分析及发展趋势预测的基础上,分析了CHX公司面临的各种风险,包括市场风险、经营风险、其他风险等等,并提出了企业资本运营、管理机制、船舶安全运营、市场营销、人力资源、企业文化建设及企业风险管理等方面的发展建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the development of the reform and opening up, our country’s economy maintained a steady and rapid development momentum, energy and transportation has brought strong demand, and it also has brought sufficient supplies of production to the Yangtze River waterway. The Yangtze golden waterway increasingly demonstrates strong vitality and development advantages. However, the outbreak began in April 2007 of the U.S. sub-prime mortgage loan crisis (referred to as sub-prime crisis) makes the U.S. weak economic growth, thus slowing down the rate of world economic growth, China’s inland shipping has been affected, to a certain extent. Extended by multiple factors such as that influence sphere of the financial crisis is expanding and impact of the crisis is deepening, market demand of the Yangtze River dry bulk shipping declined significantly, cargo traffic declined rapidly from a high level, rate of growth slowed down significantly. Yangtze River dry bulk transport enterprises, especially private enterprises, are facing severe tests and challenges. They are also facing rare opportunities for development. By means of the development research on a private dry bulk transport enterprises of the Yangtze River - CHX company, in order to provide some information to dry bulk shipping enterprise under the current situationBased on a analysis of the CHX company’s development process, the article analyes the problems of the company’s development in detail, including common issues of private shipping company, also including unique problems of CHX.Then, the article conducted a detailed analysis of the CHX company’s development environment, including inside and outside environment. At first, using PEST model describes the state’s macro environment, and analyses the complex market environmen the River/Sea Direct dry bulk transport enterprises -CHX, from three areas of transport proceed of the Yangtze River development of the market conditions, market characteristics, as well as the coastal dry bulk transportation, dry bulk transport and the Yangtze River River/Sea direct competition. Then, it analyses the company’s internal development environment, main including these aspects: First, the basic conditions for the development businesses; second, major producer of enterprise indicators; third, the enterprise’s core competitiveness analysis based on the value chain of; forth, strategic objectives of the enterprise. At last, uses SWOT-PEST matrix analysis table to describe synthetically for the CHX’s internal and external development environment.Paper establishes a regression prediction model to predict the company’s freight demand at short-term year 2009、2010 and medium-and-long-term year 2015、2020. On the future, CHX facing both the new opportunities that company’s freight demand can be ensured, and navigation conditions are improving, and also the threaten that the negative impact on operational effectiveness been brought by economic crisis and as well as internal management mechanism is not sound pressure. CHX’s development is going wel. But it should be regulate the internal management, and enhance their competitiveness in order to seize the opportunity to achieve maximum benefit.Based on the analysis of CHX company’s development environment and trend forecast, the article analyses various risks of CHX, including market risk, operational risk, other risks, etc., and put forth many aspects of development proposals on venture capital operation, management mechanism, the safe operation of the ship , marketing, human resources, corporate culture construction and crisis management ,and so on.更多还原