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基于灰色理论的路面使用性能预测及路网养护策略研究

Research on Pavement Performance Prediction and Maintenance Strategy of Road Network Based on Grey Theory

【作者】 景海民

【导师】 侯相深;

【作者基本信息】 哈尔滨工业大学 , 道路与铁道工程, 2009, 硕士

【摘要】 随着我国公路建设事业的飞速发展,养护管理工作日益繁重,这主要表现为:早期修建的公路很多已经接近使用年限,需要翻修和改建;一些新建公路也由于诸多原因,出现了不同程度的损坏。在国外,路面管理系统已经被证明是一个统筹养护资金分配、维持路网服务水平的有效工具。在我国,“七五”期间曾经开展普通公路路面管理系统的研究,而高速公路路面管理系统的研究、应用则刚刚起步。今后交通工作地重点必将由大规模建设转移到养护管理工作上来,这凸显了路面管理系统的重要性。路面性能预测模型的准确性是影响路面管理系统分析结果优劣的一个重要影响因素。由于我国经济技术水平的限制,路况数据采集手段落后,再加上某些人为的原因,可靠数据严重不足,缺乏必要的路面性能实测数据的积累,为提高对路面使用性能指标的预测和加强路面养护管理的决策,结合灰色系统“少数据建模”的特点,本论文给出了基于灰色系统理论的使用性能预测模型。证明了用该方法建立路面性能预测模型的优越性。在路面使用性能决策优化方面,本文利用0-1整数规划原理,建立了沥青路面养护决策优化模型。最后,本文在上述基础上开发了路网养护规划系统软件,阐述了系统的总体设计和系统的功能,并给出了实例;同时叙述了本文研究的结论,对进一步研究的内容进行了展望。

【Abstract】 With the road construction’s development in our county, maintenance management work is heavy more and more, that indicates in the following aspects that the roads built in early days mostly have already neared to their service life, needing to be reconstructed, the ones built lately also have damage ofvarious degrees for many reasons. In foreign countries,Pavement Management System (PMS) is proved to be an efficient tool to allocate maintenance funds and maintain the service level of road network. In China, during the seventh“five years project”, the researchers had done some researches on Pavement Management System for ordinary road network, but the research and the application of Pavement Management System to manage freeway network is atthe beginning step. Maintenance management will be laid a strong emphasis in transportation work from now on, so pavement management system is important more and more.Pavement condition prediction model is one of the most important factors that affect the analysis result of PMS. Date collection means of pavement condition are backward for the limit of economic technique level, and reliable date are in the very scarce for person’s reason. The paper combines“model of few of date”features of gray system, and project management system based on gray system theory is proposed in it for enhancing the prediction level of pavement performance and strengthening decision-making of pavement maintenance management. Result shows that this is a good way to form pavement prediction model.In performance optimization decision based on 0-1 integer programming principle, a model of optimum decision for maintenance of asphalt pavement is established in this paper.Finally, this paper builds a pavement management system, and summarizes general system design and system’s function. An example is given to show how to use the system. Meanwhile, the conclusions of asphalt pavement management system are presented and the potential prospects in this area are discussed.

  • 【分类号】U418.2
  • 【被引频次】1
  • 【下载频次】182
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