【作者】 王璐；

【导师】 王利；

【作者基本信息】 辽宁师范大学 ， 人文地理， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 区域发展规划目标的制定是区域规划的最基本内容,所有的规划工作都将围绕规划目标展开。发展目标的选择必须建立在客观的发展预测的基础上,并遵循科学的原则和方法。从邓小平同志的“发展才是硬道理”到胡锦涛主席倡导的“贯彻落实科学发展观”,区域科学发展的基本前提是编制科学的规划,制定科学的发展目标。针对区域发展总体规划如何确定发展目标,具体包括规划指标体系确定、规划指标的综合预测、规划指标上升到目标的途径等都存在大量的有待解决的理论和方法问题。本论文在此背景下通过对国内外相关指标体系的分析,明确了区域发展总体规划的指标与目标的概念、关系,探讨了区域发展总体规划指标上升到规划目标的原则和途径。论文借鉴了国内外大量的参考文献,运用理论和实证相结合,定量和定性相结合的研究方法,研究了区域发展指标体系的选取,探讨了区域发展总体规划指标上升到规划目标的方法。运用系统动力学理论,利用SD模型在处理行为随时间变化等系统问题方面的研究优势,通过VENSIM仿真,以大连水源功能区为例,建立区域社会经济发展的系统动力学模型,对区域发展进行定量化动态研究与模拟,探讨经济发展模式的,有利于观察区域不同发展模式的特征因子,并对政策的导向性影响进行系统分析,实现“政策实验室”的功能,为政府提供科学的决策支持。其中区域发展总体规划指标上升到规划目标的原则和途径和基于SD技术进行指标体系综合预测的基本思路和方法是论文的两大创新。在对于现有文献和部分研究成果进行总结分析的基础上,取得了以下成果:1、贯彻落实科学发展观,根据区域发展总体规划的总体属性、具体规划区域特点,选择适当的规划指标体系;2、提出了基于SD技术进行指标体系综合预测的基本思路和方法;3、探讨了区域发展总体规划指标上升到规划目标的原则和途径。4、最后以大连市水源功能区为例,在对于水源功能区发展总体规划指标体系进行必要的优化选择的基础上,基于SD技术对于总体规划指标进行了多情景预测,并依据一定的原则推荐水源功能区的发展目标。更多还原

【Abstract】 The target formulation of regional development plan is the most basic content in regional planning, all plan work will center on the plan goal to launch. Development choice of targets’s must establish in the objective development forecast foundation, and follows the science the principle and the method. "The development is the hard truth" initiates from Comrade Deng Xiaoping to President Hu Jintao "to implement and realize the scientific development concept" , the regional science development’ s basic premise is establishes the science the plan, the formulation science development targets. To determine the development targets how in view of the area development overall plan, includes the plan indicator system to determine that specifically, the plan target’s synthesis predict that the plan target rise to the goal way and so on exist massive wait for the solution the theory and the method question. Through the domestic and foreign index of correlation system’ s analysis, The paper has been clear about the area development overall plan target and the goal concept, the relations under this background, discussed the area development overall plan target to rise to the plan goal principle and the way.The paper has profited from the domestic and foreign massive reference, unifies using the theory and the real diagnosis, the quota and determines the nature of the research technique which unifies, has studied the area development indicator system’ s selection, discussed the area development overall plan target to rise to the plan goal method. Utilizes the systems dynamics theory, uses the SD model in the processing behavior along with system question aspect and so on time variation research superiority, through the VENSIM simulation, take Dalian water source function area as the example, the setup area socio-economic development the systems dynamics model, conducts the quantitative dynamic research and the simulation to the area development, the discussion economic development pattern choice, is advantageous in observes the region different development model the characteristic factor, and carries on the system analysis to the policy orienting influence, realizes "the policy laboratory" the function, provides the science for the government the policy-making support. And the area development overall plan target rises to the plan goal principle and the way and carries on the indicator system synthesis forecast based on the SD technology the basic mentality and the method is the paper two big innovations.In carries on the summary analysis regarding the existing literature and the part research results in the foundation, has made the following progress: 1. Implements and realizes the scientific development concept, according to the area development overall plan’ s overall attribute, the concrete plan region characteristic, chooses the suitable plan indicator system;2. Proposed carries on the indicator system synthesis forecast based on the SD technology the basic mentality and the method;3. Discussed the area development overall plan target to rise to the plan goal principle and the way.4. Finally, taking Dalian water resources function region as an example, in carries on the essential optimized choice regarding the water source function area development overall plan indicator system in the foundation, carried on the multi-scenes based on the SD technology regarding the overall plan target to predict that and based on certain principle recommendation water source function area development targets.更多还原