【作者】 李爱花；

【导师】 刘恒； 钟华平；

【作者基本信息】 南京水利科学研究院 ， 水文学与水资源， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 东线工程是我国南水北调总体布局中的重要组成部分,随着工程的建设实施,对工程运行期由于各种不确定性因素引起的风险进行分析和决策已成为目前工程规划、管理的热点和难点。论文依托“十一五”国家科技支撑计划重点项目“南水北调工程若干关键技术研究与应用”第九课题“南水北调运行风险管理关键技术问题研究”(2006BAB04A09),面向南水北调东线调水运行期间的工程风险,以工程风险管理理论为基础,以工程风险分析的流程为主线,界定、识别、评估东线工程运行风险,提出了相应的降低工程运行风险的对策与措施。主要研究内容包括:(1)工程风险分析理论与方法研究。介绍了工程风险管理和工程风险分析的内涵和流程,通过分析水利工程中承载能力与荷载的不确定性,推倒了工程设计安全系数与工程运行风险率的数学关系,并将水利工程风险率计算方法分为单一和综合两种情况进行归纳评述。指出各种方法的衍生、承接关系、应用条件及优缺点。(2)根据各工程在调水过程中所起的不同作用,将东线工程系统分解为提水、输水、蓄水三个子系统,识别各子系统在工程结构以及施工、运行和管理等各环节的风险因子,构建了各子系统风险因子结构体系。(3)确立了考虑风险率和失事后果的东线工程运行风险评价基准以及蓄水子系统单因子风险估计基准,运用基于层次分析法(AHP)和模糊理论(FCT)的风险评价模型,对蓄水子系统进行运行风险评估并排序。以东平湖为实例对风险评价基准的合理性进行验证,初步证明风险评价基准建立较合理,风险评估区间划分较准确。(4)根据工程风险评估结论和工程运行情况,分工程措施和非工程措施给出降低风险的对策与措施。结合传统的安全评价方法,对蓄水子系统中东平湖二级湖堤进行情景分析,针对性地给出了工程风险响应措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 The East Route is one of the three lines of the South-North Water Diversion Projects. With the construction of the East Route Project, risk analysis and decision during the operation has become a key point of the Project management. Supported by the State’s "Eleventh Five-Year" Science-Tech Tackle Key Project "Operating Risk Analysis and Management in the South-North Water Diversion Projects", this thesis chose the East Route Project as study object, defined, identified and evaluated the engineering risk of the East Route Project during operation. The main contents were as follows:First, research on the engineering risk analysis theories and methodologies. The mathematical relation between design safety coefficient and operation risk rate of hydraulic engineering was analyzed. Then the calculation methods for risk rate were classified into single and comprehensive methods and reviewed.Second, engineering risk identification. The Project were divided into three subsystems as water lift, water delivery and water storage subsystems according to the functions in the course of water transfer. The risk factors of each subsystem in structure, construction, operation and management were identified and the stmcture systems about risk factors of each subsystem were established.Third, engineering risk evaluation. The evaluation benchmark of the water storage subsystem was established and verified by a case study. The evaluation models were settled down by means of analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy consistency theorem (FCT) methodologies. And the operating risk grades were ranked.Last, based on the conclusions of engineering risk evaluation and conditions of project operation, the strategies and measures from structure measures and non-structure measures were put forward to decrease the operating risk. The scenario analysis of secondary lake dykes of Dong-Ping Lake was performed by combining with traditional safety evaluation method. Then the response measures of project risk were put forward.更多还原