【作者】 刘宏亮；

【导师】 程长羽；

【作者基本信息】 河北大学 ， 政治经济学， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 在市场经济中,一切经济活动都在市场规律作用下运行,商品的需求和供给由商品的价格调节,这促进了市场经济的发展。然而,由于需求和供给信息的不透明,加之商品的生产周期,往往引起商品价格的变动,在商品经济高度发达的今天,一种商品的价格变化常常会带动其它商品的价格变化。如果由于种种原因商品价格变动持续一定时间,通货膨胀就发生了。通货膨胀的发生,给国家经济、人民生活、社会稳定带来的危害,令世界各国谈“胀”色变。为了治理通货膨胀,世界各国不得不花费很长时间,付出巨大的代价。通货膨胀对当今的经济社会来说,可谓是猛于虎。显然,在通货膨胀发生时再去治理为时已晚,那么能不能将通货膨胀消灭在萌芽状态呢?或者说将通货膨胀给我们带来的危害降到最小,让商品的价格在合理的范围变动,而不上升为通货膨胀呢?本文认为可以。本文着重从产业结构的角度对改革开放以来发生在我国的比较严重的三次通货膨胀进行对比分析,对这三次通货膨胀的共性进行重点论述,希望透过我国的这三次通货膨胀现象,认识我国通货膨胀发生根本原因。我国通货膨胀的发生,有其独特性,即：我国在产业结构不合理的背景下,快速推进的改革开放,急于建立社会主义市场经济,从而导致我国通货膨胀的发生。我国2007年的通货膨胀成因与前三次通货膨胀相比,有着更复杂的背景,既有国际的,又有国内的。就国际因素来说,我国外汇储备过大,导致人民币流动性过剩,诱发了通货膨胀。就国内来说,我国产业结构长期受产业政策的影响,偏重发展出口加工工业,导致产业结构失衡,当国际原材料价格上涨时,我国企业难以在内部消化原材料价格上涨,只有将价格上涨的风险转嫁给消费者,从而导致通货膨胀的发生。而今,在国际经济危机的影响下,2009年以来我国经济有通货紧缩的可能。然而,对我国产业结构现状进行深入分析后,可以说,无论是我国2007年的通货膨胀,还是2009年出现的通货紧缩的可能,都是在外来因素诱导下的我国产业自身问题不同形式的表露。更多还原

【Abstract】 In a market economy, all economic activities run under the laws of the market, the demand and supply of goods are adjusted by commodity price, which promote the development of the market economy. However, the non-transparent information of demand and supply, in addition to the production cycle, often cause changes in commodity prices, in a highly developed commodity economy today, a commodity price changes usually lead to changes in the prices of other commodities. For various reasons, if the changes of commodity prices persist for some time, inflation occurs.The inflation brings harm to the state economy, people’s life, and social stability, so all countries in the world talk about "inflation" terribly. In order to control inflation, the world has to take a long time, pay a heavy price. Inflation in the present-day economic and social terms, is fiercer than a tiger. Clearly, to control the inflation is too late when it happened. then the inflation can be nipped in the bud? Or can we minimize the harm? This article think may.This article through comparative analysis, I focus on the commonalities of three inflations since reform and opening-up happened in our country. I hope our country can find a fundamental inflation reasons through this three inflations. Chinese inflation has its unique characteristics, namely:China’s irrational industrial structure, the rapid promotion of reform and opening up, and eager to set up a socialist market economy resulted in the occurrence of inflation in our country. I describe the characteristics of inflation which happened in our country in 2007. through comparing with previous three inflations, I point out that the inflation in 2007 was the same as the previous three inflation.I analyze the causes of the inflation that happened in our country in 2007 and point out the countermeasures. Both international and domestic factors contribute to China’s inflation. As far as international factors, our country’s foreign exchange reserve is too large, resulted in excessive liquidity of RMB. As far as international factors, Chinese industrial policy emphasis on the development of export industry, resulted in imbalance of the industrial structure. when the international raw materials prices increased, it is difficult for enterprises in our country internal digestion of raw materials prices, resulted in the occurrence of inflation. Now, under the impact of the international economic crisis, Chinese economy may deflate possibly since 2009. However, it can be said, regardless of our inflation is in 2007 or possible deflation in 2009, are caused by imbalance in our industrial structure.更多还原