【作者】 张埔境；

【导师】 唐丽艳；

【作者基本信息】 大连理工大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 随着世界经济的发展,各国均越来越重视沿海地区临港产业的发展。然而临港产业作为资源密集型产业,在促进经济增长的同时,又对海岸线、临港土地、淡水、海洋、能源等资源形成了极大的依赖性。而资源的有限性及环境容量的限制又对临港产业的发展形成了反作用,二者之间的相互作用客观上促使了临港产业与区域承载力之间作用机制的形成。所以,明确区域承载力与临港产业的作用机制对于进行临港产业发展路径决策分析尤为重要。本文首先在文献综述的基础上对区域承载力进行了概念界定,并从集成角度,借助分层结构模型识别了基于区域承载力的临港产业集成影响因素,并在此基础上构建相应的评价指标体系。随后本文引入灰色关联分析法与模糊积分法构建了基于区域承载力的临港产业集成发展路径决策模型。最后在算例分析的基础上,本文得出如下结论:区域承载力的各要素对临港产业集成的发展起到不同的作用,包括区域环境的制约作用、区域资源的支撑作用、腹地基础设施的辅助作用、区域软实力的调节作用、港口区位因素的决定性作用。应用基于区域承载力的临港产业集成发展路径决策分析模型可以得到三方面的路径决策依据:某行业的灰色关联度越大,对于区域GDP的贡献越大,为促进经济发展应优先发展这些行业;某行业的模糊评价指数越大,其区域承载力承载状态越佳,优先发展该行业对区域承载力构成的威胁较小;对于每一个行业,解模糊化后的要素评估值越小,该要素对该行业发展的约束就越大,视为发展该行业的瓶颈。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the development of the world economy, many countries are more and more attention of the development of port-vicinity industry. However, as a kind of resource-intensive industries, port-vicinity industry has formed enormous dependence on the land, marine, coastline and energy in promoting economic growth. But the limitation of resources environmental capacity formed a backlash on the development of port-vicinity industry, the interaction between them objectively promoted the formation of the mechanism between port-vicinity industry and regional carrying capacity. So it’s especially important for the analysis of the development path of port-vicinity industry to clarify the mechanism between regional carrying capacity and port-vicinity industry.Firstly, the article gives the definition of regional carrying capacity on the basis of literature review, and from the integrated point of view, recognizes the influence factors of integrated port-vicinity industry based on the regional carrying capacity recurring to the hierarchy identification model, and based on this constructing the evaluation index system. Then the article introduces gray correlation analysis and fuzzy integral methods and has set up an decision model of development path of integrated port-vicinity industry based on regional carrying capacity.At last, on the basis of an example analysis, the article conclusion that: various factors of regional carrying capacity play different roles on the development of integrated port-vicinity industry, including the restricting effects of regional environment, supporting effects of regional resources, auxiliary effects of infrastructure of the hinterland, adjusting effects of regional soft power and decisive effects of port location. Through the decision model can obtain three aspects of the path decision evidence: the bigger grey correlation of an industry is, the greater its contribution to the GDP is, so this industry should be developed priority to promote the economic development; the bigger fuzzy evaluation index of an industry is, the better its bearing status is, so the development threaten to regional capacity is small; to every industries, the smaller element’s evaluation after defuzzification is, the bigger its constraint to the industry development is, and this element becomes the bottleneck of the development of this industry.更多还原