【作者】 欧阳文辉；

【导师】 龚志民；

【作者基本信息】 湘潭大学 ， 产业经济学， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 改革开放以来在我国经济快速增长的同时,消费与投资的不协调问题越来越突出。多年来我国最终消费率持续走低,已经严重制约了居民消费需求的扩大和消费结构的升级,也严重阻碍了中国经济的持续快速增长。对消费率问题的研究一般可以归结为对消费与投资比例关系的研究。近年来,关于我国投资与消费关系的研究成为理论界的热点问题之一,在对该问题的探讨中,国内经济学界的研究主要以经验性分析为主,而对于消费者的微观行为与宏观经济运行规律之间的复杂关系缺乏卓有成效的探索。因此,研究消费率的形成机制,对于确定合理的投资率,对于制定有效的有关调控政策有十分重要的借鉴意义。传统建模方法通常是面向一个层次,宏观和微观之间是截然分开的。复杂适应系统的建模方法能够弥补这个缺陷,它的基本思想是对系统各抽象的要素之间的关系进行刻画,相应的方法和工具受到越来越多的关注,Swarm仿真平台就是其中之一。基于复杂适应性Swarm仿真平台的模型建模过程是“自下而上”的,这种“自下而上”的模型反映了局部性、内部元素相互作用的分散性等复杂系统的典型特点。主体间的交互是分散的,即任何一个主体的行动都与其他一些主体的行动相关。对于整个系统来说,宏观上的表现是由这些主体共同产生的。本文在复杂适应性视角下,借鉴了Swarm仿真的基本思想,创建了基于消费者行为(跨期选择)、政府行为以及企业行为的经济学仿真模型,以此来探索消费率的微观形成机制。在本文的研究中进行了大量的仿真实验,对仿真结果的分析,我们可以得出一些有启发性的结论:在仿真模型运行过程中,我们可以看到消费与投资曲线呈现出不规律的跳动,并非是此消彼长的关系;消费者的行为极端复杂,不同群体的消费行为表现为不同的消费率;消费者在市场中的主导地位会因为政府行为的缺失而体现得更为明显;对于同样的初始状态,经济系统长期运行之后涌现的宏观结果未必相同。本文的研究表明,在消费率的形成中,消费者具有决定性作用,而最终的结果是由消费者行为(跨期选择)、企业行为以及政府行为来共同决定的。更多还原

【Abstract】 The economy of China has maintained a high growth rate since the adoption of reform and opening policies. But the proportion of consumption is not in consonance with investment. The ultimate consumption rate is low in recent years, which extremely not only restricts the residents’consumption demand and the upgrading of consumption structure, but also hampers the economic growth. The researches on consumption rate are regarded as the studies of the proportion to consumption. It is clear that the researches of the proportion to consumption are a focus these days, most of the domestic economists’researches are empirical analyses. So, the studies on theory are not in-depth studies and lack of convincing. What’s worse, it is lack of efficient ways to probe the complex connection between the consumers’microscopic behavior and the operation of the macroeconomic. Our researches on the shape of the consumption rate and the reasonable investment rate are valuable and meaningful for government to make effective policies.The traditional modeling methods is singleness, detaching the micro and the macro aspects. The methods on theory of complexity and adaptability can fix it. The principal thought is to depict the abstract element’s connection in the system. The corresponding means and tools get more and more concern, such as simulation model based on swarm. The progress of the swarm platform based on theory of complexity and adaptability is from bottom to top. That reflects the type points of the complex system, such as localness, disperse. The interactions between agents are dispersible. The macro behaviors of the whole system are generated by these agents. In the view of the complexity and adaptability theory, this paper establishes a computable economic simulation model, which contains the behaviors of consumers, government and enterprises, to quest for the mechanism of the shape of consumption rate, using the theory of complexity and adaptability.In this research, we do a lot of simulation experiments. By analyzing these simulation results, I draw some revelatory conclusions. The curves of the consumption and investment are varying irregularly. Extreme complexity of consumer behavior, consumer behavior of different groups for different consumption rate.The consumers’leading status in market will be more obvious if missing the governmental behaviors. The macro results are not necessary the same for the same origin. Our researches indicate that consumers’behaviors are vital to the shape of the consumption rate, and the ultimate results are codetermined by the behaviors of consumers, government and enterprises.更多还原