【作者】 潘竟源；

【导师】 刘普幸；

【作者基本信息】 西北师范大学 ， 自然地理学， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 水资源安全不仅是一个生态环境问题,也是一个经济问题、社会问题和政治问题,直接关系到国家的安全。目前,水资源安全越来越成为全世界关注的焦点,各国投入了大量的人力物力去研究解决水资源安全问题。对水资源紧张的国家和地区来说,水资源已成为关系到生存和发展的战略问题,也是影响国家安全和国际关系的一个重要方面。因此,有必要对区域水资源安全问题进行深入研究,以便对区域水资源安全状况进行客观真实的评估。在充分理解水资源安全概念的基础上,本文利用多层次多目标决策和模糊优选理论,建立民勤绿洲水资源安全评价的模糊优选模型,认识民勤绿洲近5年来水资源安全的变化情况,了解自然与人为因素对水资源安全的影响过程及其生态效应,揭示其形成机制,以期为民勤绿洲的可持续发展提供决策依据。论文共分为七个部分。第一部分提出了本文的选题背景,并简述了水资源安全的国内外研究进展,在此基础上,论述了本研究的目的、意义、理论及方法。第二部分主要概述了研究区的自然和社会经济状况。第三部分阐述了研究区水资源安全存在的主要问题,主要包括:地表水资源逐年减少,绿洲面积逐渐萎缩;地下水过量开采,水质恶化;天然植被退化,生物多样性减少和土地荒漠化趋势加强等问题。第四部分借鉴已有的水资源安全评价指标体系,并根据研究区水资源安全的现状,以科学性、完整性、可比性和区域性为原则,建立了民勤绿洲水资源安全评价指标体系。第五部分基于缺水程度R,应用多层次多目标模糊优选模型对民勤绿洲近5年来的水资源安全状况进行了评价,并对评价结果进行了分析。基于缺水程度R对民勤绿洲水资源安全的评价表明:民勤绿洲近5年来水资源处于不安全状态,其中2003年、2006年和2007年处于不安全状态,2004年和2005年处于危机状态。基于多层次多目标模糊优选模型对民勤绿洲近5年来水资源安全趋势的评价表明:民勤绿洲水资源安全形势趋于好转。近5年来,民勤绿洲水资源安全形势由好到坏的排序是2007年(0.7632)→2006年(0.6735)→2003年(0.5765)→2005年(0.5569)→2004年(0.5046)。5年中,民勤绿洲水资源安全决策优属度总体上逐渐增大,这就从一定程度上说明,随着时间的推移,民勤绿洲的水资源安全形势逐渐好转。2004年民勤绿洲水资源安全决策优属度最小,说明5年中民勤绿洲水资源安全形势2004年最差,这主要是因为2004年石羊河上游来水量急剧减少造成的结果。此外,在民勤绿洲水资源安全整体形势趋于好转的背景下,民勤绿洲水资源供需矛盾、生态环境、粮食安全、饮用水安全和控制灾害各呈现出不同的变化和特点。第六部分依据评价结果,从缓解水资源供需矛盾、保护生态环境、确保粮食安全、保障饮用水安全和加强控制措施等方面提出了民勤绿洲水资源安全的保障对策。第七部分对全文进行了总结,并提出了论文写作过程中存在的不足以及今后需要进一步改进和思考的问题。更多还原

【Abstract】 Water resources security is not only an ecological issue, but also an economic、social and political issue directly related to national security. Security issue of water resources has increasingly become the focus of attention around the world, countries put a lot of manpower and material resources to study and solve the security problems of water resources. Tension of water resources for the countries and regions, water has become related to the survival and development of strategic issues, but also affect the national security and international relations. It is therefore necessary to the security of regional water resources issues in-depth study in order to secure regional water resources assessment of objective truth. On the basis of comprehensive understanding of the concept of water resources security, fuzzy optimization model for evaluation of Minqin Oasis water resources security is established upon multi-objective and multilevel fuzzy optimization theory. This work can understand the past 5 years situation of water resources security in Minqin Oasis,understand the natural and man-made factors that affect the security of water resources and its ecological effects and reveal the formation mechanism.The paper wants to give a view to the sustainable development decision-making support in Minqin Oasis. The paper has seven parts.The first part raises the article background and outlines the security of water resources research at home and abroad, on this basis, discusses the purpose of this study and the significance of the theory and methods.The second part provides an overview of the study area about the main natural and socio-economic conditions.The third part describes the security of water resources problems in the study area, including surface water resources decline year by year;excessive exploitation of groundwater;natural vegetation degradation, loss of biodiversity,the strengthening trend of land desertification and other issues.The fourth part establishes the evaluation index system of water resources security in Minqin Oasis which comes from the existing evaluation system and the study area based on the current status of water security to the scientific nature.The fifth part establishes the fuzzy optimization model for evaluation of Minqin Oasis water security upon multi-objective and multilevel fuzzy optimization theory. Based on the degree of water shortage in water resources of the Minqin Oasis safety evaluation showes that: recently 5 years the water in Minqin Oasis in a state of insecurity, of which 2003、2006 and 2007 in a state of insecurity,2004 and 2005 in a state of crisis. Based on multi-objective and multi-level fuzzy optimization model showes that:the situation of Minqin oasis’water resources tends to become good. The past 5 years, the security situation in Minqin oasis water from good to bad is the sort in 2007 (0.7632)→2006(0.6735)→2003(0.5765)→2005(0.5569)→2004(0.5046). In 5 years, the decision-making membership degree in Minqin Oasis in general is gradually increasing, which to some extent from that the situation of Minqin oasis’water resources tends to become good. The decision-making membership degree to 2004 in Minqin Oasis is the smallest degree, which showes that the worst water resources security situation is in 2004. In addition, although the overall situation of water resources in Minqin Oasis tends to become good, the Minqin oasis’water supply and demand contradiction, the environment, food security, drinking water security and control of disasters showes the different characteristics.The sixth part puts forward Minqin Oasis’countermeasures to protect the safety of water resources security from the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources, protecting ecological environment, ensuring food security, protecting drinking water security and strengthening control measures.The seventh part makes a summary of the full text and showes the process of thesis writing deficiencies, as well as future needs to further refine and consider.更多还原