【作者】 王栓林；

【导师】 伍永平；

【作者基本信息】 西安科技大学 ， 采矿工程， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 我国高瓦斯突出矿井分布广,且随着开采力度的加大,突出危险性明显增大,严重威胁煤矿工人的生命安全,阻碍煤矿安全生产的正常进行,因此致力于煤与瓦斯突出危险性实时跟踪预测技术研究,了解突出机理、积极开发基于声发射和瓦斯实时动态预测新技术的研究有重要的现实意义。本文对煤与瓦斯突出危险性实时跟踪预测方法和数据分析进行深入研究,在煤与瓦斯突出机理分析基础上,通过数值试验了解突出前后应力分布、瓦斯压力变化及声发射特征,总结突出机理;分别对声发射和瓦斯单项指标进行了研究,利用概率分布建立声发射基础参数判定模型;运用时间序列分析对瓦斯涌出进行分析,建立指数平滑预测模型和瓦斯涌出变化模型对掘进工作面瓦斯涌出特征进行评价。在瓦斯和声发射各自参数确定的前提下,分别以声发射基本参数为基础,运用层次分析-模糊综合法建立声发射项综合指标AE(Acoustic Emission),并根据现场实际需要,设定8h长时指标和3h短时指标。以瓦斯评价参数偏差和方差为基础,提出了瓦斯项综合指标WS(Wa Si)和基于声发射项综合指标和瓦斯项综合指标的煤与瓦斯突出危险性实时跟踪预测新综合指标DI(Dangerous Index),实现对掘进工作面的突出危险性进行评价,提高了实时预测的准确性。对比常规预测指标,验证了瓦斯项综合指标WS及声发射项综合指标AE用于突出危险性实时跟踪预测的可行性和准确性。更多还原

【Abstract】 High coal and gas outburst mine distribute widely around our counry, meanwhile with deep minning, burst risk heavily increased, threated coal workers and heavily blocked safety production, so it is great significant to study real-time trace techniques in risk prediction of coal and gas outburst and mechanism, develop new real-time dynamic prediction skills.Detailed study is implemented to the real-time trace techniques in risk predition methods and data analysis of coal and gas outburst in the paper, and based on analysis of the outburst mechanism, find out the stress distribution, the changes of gas pressure and the stadus of AE(Acoustic Emission) before-after the outburst. Studied the single index of AE and gas emission, and established the basic parameters determined model using probability distribution. In order to evaluating the gas emission quanlity in driving face, built the exponent smoothing prediction model and gas emission model applying time series analysis.Under precondition of gas and AE parameters, established the item of AE comprehensive index using AHP (analytic hierarchy process) analysis and fuzzy synthetic method, and set long index in 8h and short index in 3h. On the basis of the parameters of deviation and variance, built the item of gas comprehensive index, put foreward the new comprehensive index DI (Dangerous Index) based on the comprehensive index of AE and gas emission.Comparing with the routine prediction indes, it has proved the feasibility and accuracy of WS and AE in the application of real-time trace techniques in risk prediction of burst, and the real-time property is much better than the routine prediced index.更多还原