【作者】 白根川；

【导师】 夏建国；

【作者基本信息】 四川农业大学 ， 土地资源管理， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 土地利用变化是相当复杂的过程,其既受自然因素的制约,又在一定地域上受社会、经济、技术等多方面因素的强烈影响,具有明显的综合性和地域性。同时,土地利用地变化又对区域环境变化起着相当重要的作用。因此,对土地利用变化的研究具有十分重要的现实意义。元胞自动机(Cellular Automata,CA)是一种时间、空间、状态均离散,空间的相互作用和时间的因果关系皆局部的网格动力学模型,它“自下而上”的研究思路,强大的复杂计算功能、固有的并行计算能力、高度动态特性及具有空间概念等特征,使得它在模拟空间复杂系统的时空演化方面具有很强的能力,非常适用于具有复杂时空特征的地理系统模拟,现已成为区域土地利用空间演化模拟的重要工具。本文首先利用眉山市东坡区1996和2005年各种地类面积及其空间分布信息,借助GIS空间叠置分析和FRAGSTATS的统计功能,分别获得地类转化概率矩阵和地类空间相邻矩阵,通过将二者结合的地类空间转化趋势模型,对东坡区1996～2005年的土地利用转化趋势进行了研究。总体趋势为:①所有的地类都有都有保持稳定的趋势;②建设用地具有超强的抗可逆性,与它们相邻的其它各种地类都有向它们强烈转化的趋势,而它们自己能保持极强的稳定性。③耕地和林地向建设用地转化的趋势指数极大,建设用地向耕地和林地转化的趋势指数相当小。最后不仅对地类空间转化趋势模型进行了评价,还对其应用范围进行了界定。在此基础上,本文基于元胞自动机模型,假设了东坡区2007～2011的三种规划目标,并相应给出了三种规划方案,在充分数据挖掘的前提下,使多要素共同转化为CA-Markov模型的转化规则,分别模拟出了三种规划方案下的2011年东坡区土地利用数量及空间变化布局,结果表明,以基本农田保护和退耕还林为目的,既考虑土地整理趋势又考虑城市发展方向的规划方案3是三种规划方案中最优的规划方案。最后,不仅分析了这种“最优”规划方案下2011年东坡区土地利用数量变化及空间变化布局,并有针对性地提出了相应的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Land use and its change are undergoing a very complicated process, which is restricted not only by natural factors, but also is intensively influenced by human factors including economy, technology, and policy etc. and with an obviously comprehensive and regional character. Therefore, To study of land-use change has great practical significance.Cellular Automata (CA) is a kind of discrete grid dynamic model, whose time, space and state are all discrete, and the spatial interaction and causality on time are completely specified in terms of a local relation. The traits of CA such as "from botton to top" approach strong complicated computing capability, inherent parallel computing capability, highly dynamic characteristic and spatial concept,etc., have made it very strong on spatial-temporal evolution modelling of the complex system. CA has shown thoroughly the essence of complexity science that "the complicated structure comes from the interaction of the simple subsystem". So CA is suitable to study complex spatial-temporal geographic system, and it has been an important tool and research focus for regional land use modeling.Firstly, based on the information of various land-use types acreage and their spatial distributions in Dongpo District, Meishan City in the year of 1996 and 2005, land-use transiton matrix and adjacency matrix were got through GIS spatial overlaying analysis and the statistical function of FRAGSTATS. And the two matrixs were combined to study the land-use transition trend of Dongpo District from 1996 to 2005. The results indicated:①all the land-use types were in the trend of keeping steady,②construction land had very strong counteractive reversibility and stability, but the land nearby in other use types were in the trend of transition into construction land intensively,③there’s no trend for construction land transforming into cultivated land , woodland or grass. In the end, not only was the model evaluated, but also its application scope was defined.Then, based on the Cellular Automata Model and the three assumed planning targets of Dongpo district government, three plannings were put forward. Under the precondition of sufficient data mining and the transformation rules of transferring Multi-elements to CA-Markov, the amount and space changes of land utilization in Dongpo district in 2011 was simulated according to the three plannings. The results indicated that for protection of basic farmland and the sloping land conversion, the devloping model of the third planning was the the best, in which both land consolidation and the city developing direction were considered. According to the comparation of the state of land utilization in 2006 and the amount and spatial evolution of land utilization in Dongpo district in 2011 under the third planning, corresponding policy measures were put forward.更多还原