【作者】 莫蔚彬；

【导师】 吴唤群；

【作者基本信息】 广州大学 ， 技术经济与管理， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 房地产经济系统是一个复杂适应性巨系统,具有规模大、结构复杂、非线性等特点,所以直接使用数学方法或者其它传统的建模方法对这些复杂性进行描述和分析已经变得很难,而基于Agent的系统建模和仿真的方法则可以解决传统方法所面临的难题。本文在这种研究背景下,试图采用基于Agent的建模仿真方法与Swarm仿真平台对广州市房地产经济系统进行建模仿真,并在此仿真程序上测试不同类别的房地产宏观调控政策效果,以及对未来房地产宏观调控政策的方向给予了一定的建议,以促使广州市的房地产行业能够向一个健康、可持续发展的方向发展。文章主体分为四部分:一、对在现实中的广州市房地产经济状况进行描述;二、介绍了基于Agent建模仿真方法,以及概述了Swarm仿真平台的建模思想和模型结构;三、首先从宏观的角度分析了基于Agent的广州市房地产经济系统模型的基本结构,然后还从微观的角度把模型里的家庭(个人)、房地产开发公司、必需品生产公司、额外品消费公司、银行、政府、房屋建筑成本供应公司、资本生产公司和房地产中介公司等每一类Agent各自的行为都做了详细的解剖分析;四、在Swarm仿真平台上运行基于Agent的广州房地产经济系统模型,并且再对不同类别的房地产宏观调控政策进行了模拟,以及把这些模拟结果和现状仿真模拟做了较比分析,指出不同类别的房地产宏观调控政策的成效并给予建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Real estate economic system is a complex adaptive mega system. Because of its characteristics, such as large-scale, complex structure and nonlinear, it is discovered that the direct use of mathematical methods or other traditional modeling method to describe these complexities and to make analysis have become very difficult. As a result, Agent-based system modeling and simulation methods could solve these problems. This dissertation attempts to use Agent-based modeling, simulation methods and Swarm simulation platform for Guangzhou City real estate economic system modeling and analysis, as well as to test different types of real estate effect of macro-control policies, and to provide suggestion on the direction of real estate macro-control policies in the future. It hopes to make Guangzhou real estate market become more healthy and sustainable.This dissertation is divided into four parts: first, to describe the situation of Guangzhou real estate economic system; second, to introduce Agent-based modeling or simulation methods, and to outline the modeling idea and review the Swarm simulation platform; third, to analyze the basic structure of the Agent-based Guangzhou real estate economic system model from a macro perspective, and then to analyze each category Agent of household(individual), construction-firm, basic-commodity-firm, extra-commodity-firm, bank, government, House-cost-firm, capital-goods-firm and realtor from the micro perspective of the model; fourth, to carry out the Agent-based Guangzhou real estate economic system models on the Swarm simulation platform, and to simulate the different types of real estate macro control policy, as well as to compare these simulation results with the current status simulation, and to point out that different types of real estate effectiveness of macro-control policies and to give recommendations.更多还原