【作者】 吴慧媛；

【导师】 俞书伟；

【作者基本信息】 山东科技大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 随着经济的发展、市场需求的拉动、项目控制能力的增强,一些企业已从小规模单一项目经营走向大规模多项目经营。企业面临在资源有限而备选项目众多的情况下,如何选择好多个项目的难题。如果项目组合选择不恰当、搭配不合理,企业的发展将会受到很大的影响,甚至将会面临灾难性的后果。项目的组合和选择成为多项目管理中必须解决的首要问题。本文主要运用项目管理理论、灰色数学理论与方法、运筹学理论与方法、计算机软件技术对项目组合优选展开研究。在总结和研究国内外大量项目管理理论和组合选择方法的基础上提出了切实可操作的项目组合选择流程。项目组合选择问题的复杂度随备选项目增加呈指数增长,因此本文首先在不考虑项目间相互关系的前提下对项目进行初选,淘汰掉那些与企业战略目标不一致的项目。然后充分考虑项目间的相互影响,从成本、收益、结果各方面考察项目之间的关系,建立项目组合优选模型,使得项目组合的选择更加科学合理。除绪论外,本文其他各章的内容分别概括如下。关于项目组合选择的基本思想和方法研究。从项目组合选择问题的数学描述、常用方法等方面对项目组合选择理论基础做了系统的总结,提出了项目组合选择的流程。关于企业个体项目优选评价模型。利用平衡计记分卡法和专家评定法确定项目选择评价模型指标体系。采用灰色层次法建立综合评价模型,利用Matlab6.5进行编程,实现模型的可视化和易于操作的功能。关于企业项目组合优选模型研究。分析了项目间的相互影响,将其融合到0-1线性规划模型中,分类别建立了考虑相互影响的项目组合优选模型。采用遗传算法,模拟自然界生物进化过程,对目标空间进行随机化搜索,求解满足要求的项目组合。关于企业项目组合优选模型的应用。从某化工企业开展多项目管理的实际背景出发,探索项目组合选择模型在该化工企业的具体应用。更多还原

【Abstract】 Along with economy development, the increase of market demand and the strengthen of project control ability, some enterprises have turned to carry on large-scale multi-projects instead of running single item. Those enterprise faced the problem how to choose projects and arrangement them in order to keep the project agree with the enterprises’ strategy in the states of carry on many project with limited resources. Choose and portfolio of the projects becoming the problem which senior manager have to face, and the major problem in project portfolio management.This paper studied the problem by using project management theory, operation research theory, systems engineering theory, gray mathematic theory, and computer programming. The paper studied the problem mainly by formal analysis, and other method also be used in the paper where it needed. We first do not consider the interacton of each projects,and evaluate each projects primarily.Then when we estimate the best project portfolio,we cosider the interaction from cost、income and outcome in order to make the project portfolio more scientific and rational logistic.Except for introdution ,other chapters of the paper can be briefly generalized as follows.On the study of the basic theory in project portfolio selection .On the analysis of the principle of project portfolio selection this paper make a sum up on the project portfolio choice theory in the problem’s mathematical model and the steps to solve the problem ,and a process of project portfolio selection have been given.On the study of the method of project portfolio estimation and selection based on estimate theory. This paper determined the indicator system of the project portfolio estimation and selection model preliminary by using balanced scorecard, and optimize the indicator system by using the method of experts assessment. The reason why using grey mathematical estimate method has been discussed in the paper. The integrate model on estimate and select has been present on the research of the optimization of the estimate swatch matrix and the optimization of the whitenization weight function. And the model has been a realization in a Matlab6.5 program, so it is easy to use in practice and can be visualized.On the study of project portifolio selection considering each others’ influences.It firstly discusses and analyzes the influences to the result of projectportfolio selection which is influenced by interaction of the alternative projects. And then the interactions of projects are analyzed and divided into 3 types. After that, the solving methods and steps with interactions of projects are put forward. Followingly, 0-1 plan model with quantified interactions of projects is proposed. Applied the result GAs have been reached in combinatorial optimization theory to the project portfolio select, using the genetic algorithm toolbox in Matlab6.5 realized the coding and the mechanism setting in GAs.On the study of the application of project portfolio select model in the enterprise’s multi-project management. The paper introduced the project portfolio in the Y Group, then by analysis the method they used in the project portfolio management, we verified the algorithm in solving the project portfolio problem in the enterprise’s multi-project management.更多还原