【作者】 姚猛；

【导师】 韦保仁；

【作者基本信息】 苏州科技学院 ， 环境工程， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 伴随着我国汽车产量和汽车保有量的高速增长,我国汽车产业无疑面临着前所未有的环境与能源压力。中国汽车产业能否实现可持续发展,解决好目前的“环保压力”和“能源供应”两大命题是关键。生态足迹分析模型是一种定量衡量可持续发展的重要方法,自提出以来得到了生态经济学界的广泛关注,并被应用于国家、地区和城市等各个层面的生态足迹、承载力、能源与环境指标研究中。借助生态足迹分析模型,可以将我国汽车产业对能源、资源的消耗以及温室气体的排放转化为相应的生态生产性土地面积,将这种压力定量化、形象化,便于分析和研究。本文利用生态足迹分析模型对1997年到2007年的中国汽车产业各生命周期阶段内的生态足迹进行了核算,并对核算结果进行了汇总和详细的分析。核算结果表明,1997年到2007年间中国汽车产业总生态足迹的增长速率成上升趋势,2007年,中国汽车产业生态足迹是1997年的3.14倍,年均增长率12.12%。之后,本文为中国汽车保有量的增长构建了高、中、低三种速度的发展情景,并且在这三种情景下进一步建立了不同的能源和资源消耗情景,构成了两个层次的六种发展情景,分别核算了这六种发展情景下中国汽车产业生态足迹的发展趋势,对核算结果进行了分析。最后,结合中国汽车产业生态足迹的变化过程和发展趋势,得出了一些结论,并结合相关结论,针对未来汽车产业生态足迹的构成和将要面临的严峻的能源和环境压力提出了相应的对策。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the rapid growth of China’s motor output and population, there’s no doubt that China’s motorcar industry is facing unprecedented pressure from environment and energy. In order to realize China’s motorcar industry sustainable development, environment and energy issues must be consciously and wisely solved. Ecological footprint (EF) model which has been paid worldwide attention can be used to quantificationally analysis the degree of sustainable development and has been put into research areas concerning ecological footprint, ecological capacity, and energy and environment indexes. By means of EF model we can transform the consumption of energy and resources and the output of green house gases of China’s motorcar industry into areas of biological production land. So, the pressure can be quantified and visualized, it is more convenient for us analyze and study.This paper divided the life cycle of China’s motorcar industry into three phases and calcuated the ecological footprint of China’s motorcar industry between 1997 and 2007. The evaluation results were analyzed in detail. The results indicated that the total EF of the industry kept rising between 1997 and 2007, the EF of 2007 was 3.14 times of 1997, and the average annual growth rate was 12.12%.Afterwards, 6 different development scenarios were constructed for China’s motorcar industry which included high, middle and low speed scenarios for motorcar population growth rate, and under each of the three scenarios tow different energy and resources consumption scenarios were constructed. The EF under the 6 scenarios were calculated and analyzed.Finally, this paper summed up several conclusions and then put forward some countermeasures for China’s motorcar industry’s future development based on the foregoing EF evaluation results and analysis.更多还原