重庆市农产品期货市场研究

【作者】 罗正伦；

【导师】 廖元和；

【作者基本信息】 重庆工商大学 ， 区域经济学， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 农产品作为农业的产出物,是人类食物的主要来源,同时也是工业生产的重要原料来源,是一国国民经济的基础,其价格变化会直接影响到整个价格体系发生变化甚至动荡,且因其生产周期较长等供给方面的特性,导致价格的变化较为频繁。重庆作为一个大农村和大城市并存的经济体,在城乡统筹为现阶段政策主基调的背景下,农业的健康发展及农民收入的稳定增长显得尤为重要。农产品期货作为现代金融衍生品,其主要经济功能为规避风险和价格发现,正是上述任务得以完成的重要工具。本文在对农产品期货市场概况和相关理论回顾的基础上,主要通过计量的方法,将国内农产品期货价格与重庆市现货价格配对建模,进行重庆市农产品期货市场的价格发现功能和规避风险功能的实证研究。具体而言,采用协整检验和误差修正模型等方法,将国内农产品期货价格结合重庆市现货市场价格,研究农产品期货市场的价格发现功能;对国内农产品期货价格与重庆市现货价格的基差进行分析,评估套期保值的效果,并以重庆重点现货企业为代表进行例证,分析农产品期货市场的规避风险功能。之后,采取比较的方法对重庆市农产品期货市场进行研究,分为两个层次,首先是中国与美国之间农产品期货市场的比较研究,其次是重庆市与国内发达地区之间农产品期货市场比较研究。通过以上分析后,直观的反映出重庆市农产品期货市场功能发挥不理想的现状,并提出相关的对策建议,主要包括依托中国现有期货交易所发展农产品现货市场;研究在重庆市成立期货交易所的可行性;发展政府主导的农产品期货套期保值应用体系;发展市场化的农产品期货套期保值应用体系。最后在结语部分谈到了对在重庆市设立期货交易所的看法,即短期内还不成熟,需要首先发展大宗现货远期电子交易所。更多还原

【Abstract】 Agricultural product as object of agriculture is the main source of human food and industrial material. As the foundation of the national economy of a country, its price changing will directly affect the change of the price system instability or even. However, it has longer production cycle and other characteristics, resulting in more frequent price changes. Chongqing is a large rural and metropolitan co-existing economy, at the present stage in balancing urban and rural development policy for the main tone of the background, the healthy development of agriculture and the steady growth of income of the farmers is particularly important. Agricultural futures as a modern financial derivative, which has main economic functions of price-finding and risk-dodging, is an important tool to complete the above-mentioned tasks.In this paper, after reviewing the agricultural futures market of synoptically product and related basic theory, matches the agricultural product of the domestic futures prices and Chongqing spot prices primarily by the method of econometrics, for empirical researching the price-finding and risk-dodging functions of Chongqing agricultural futures market. Specifically, using Co-Integration and Error-Correction Model and other approaches, combined with the domestic futures prices and Chongqing spot prices to study the agricultural futures market price-finding function. To study the agricultural futures market risk-dodging function, by analyzing basis of the domestic futures prices and Chongqing spot prices to assess the effect of hedging and focusing on a representative spot enterprise in Chongqing for example. Soon after, it adopts a method of comparison to study Chongqing agricultural futures market divided into two levels. First of all compare the agricultural futures markets between China and the United States, followed by Chongqing between the developed areas in comparative study of agricultural futures markets. From the above analysis reflect present situation of the function of Chongqing agricultural futures market, it is not an ideal. And put forward some related suggestions, mainly relying on China’s current agricultural futures exchanges to develop the spot market, studying the feasibility of the establishment of futures exchange in Chongqing, developing the government-led application system of hedging for agricultural futures, developing the market-oriented application system of hedging for agricultural futures. In the conclusion part, it provides views on establishing a future exchange in Chongqing. That is not yet completely ripe in the short-term, needing to develop an electronic exchange for forward transaction of bulk commodities firstly.更多还原