节点文献
地铁盾构法施工风险管理与应用研究
【作者】 张博；
【导师】 徐志胜；
【作者基本信息】 中南大学 ， 防灾减灾工程及防护工程， 2009， 硕士
【摘要】 地铁盾构法施工具有施工周期长、施工项目多、技术复杂、不可预见风险因素多等特点,近几年相继发生的地铁工程事故更是引起了人们对地铁施工安全风险的高度重视,因此有必要对地铁盾构法施工开展风险管理的研究。运用风险管理的基本理论与地铁盾构法施工实践相结合的方法,对风险辨识、风险评估以及风险控制等方面的内容进行了研究,主要的研究成果包括如下几个方面:(1)综合了核查表法、维恩图法、工作分解结构法(WBS)和风险分解结构法(RBS)等风险辨识方法,形成了“初选——二次筛选——再分解”的风险辨识模式,最终建立了风险指标体系。(2)由于传统的层次分析法存在标度过于简单、一致性检验复杂等问题,引入了三角模糊数理论,并与层次分析法相结合,建立了改进后的层次分析模型。(3)在进行风险估计时,除了考虑风险发生概率和风险损失水平,还引入了风险不可控制性变量,更加科学地体现了风险管理的思想。根据这三个变量对风险量进行估算,按照风险量的估值区间范围,建立了相应的风险分级标准。(4)将模糊综合评判法和改进的层次分析法结合(F—AHP),建立了适用于地铁盾构法施工风险评估的分析模型,增强了风险分析的适用性和准确性。(5)根据已建立的风险评估模型对实际工程进行了分析,并提出了相应的风险控制措施来降低施工风险。通过对地铁盾构法施工风险管理的研究,能够较好地预测和解决施工中可能遇到的问题,对保证施工安全具有一定的指导意义。
【Abstract】 Construction of metro shield is of some characteristics, such as long-term construction, numerous subprojects, complexity of construction technology, and unpredictability of risk factors, etc. In recent years, there appeared sequent metro engineering accidents, which draws a great deal of attention of people into the construction safety risk of metro engineering. Thereby, it is necessary to carry out the research in risk management on the construction of metro shield.With the combination of the risk management theory and the experience got from the metro projects, the paper detailed content from risk identification, risk assessment and risk control.The main contents of the paper summarized as follows:1) Based on the Check List Method, Venn diagram, Work Breakdown Structure(WBS), and Risk Breakdown Structure(RBS), risk index system of metro shield project is established by using the Pattern of primary selection—reseletion—brekdown.2) Because of the shortage in Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP), improved the model of AHP by taking account of Triangular Fuzzy Number theory and the traditional AHP.3) The calculation of risk quantity should be considered from Probability, Consequences and Uncontrollability, it embodies the idea of risk management. Based on the three variables, we can ascertain interval range of the risk quantity, accordingly get the standards of risk level.4) The paper integrates the Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation with improved analytic hierarchy progress, so that it suits the metro shield constructiong risk analysis better and can swell the applicability and accuracy of the project risk analysis.5) Take a actual project as an example, make risk analysis using textual risk model, and put forward correspondingmeasures to reduce the risk of it.Research on the risk management of metro shield construction, which can can predicted and solved constructive problems, has certain guiding significance for safety in construction.