EPC项目成本控制中的风险管理研究

【作者】 许杰；

【导师】 傅纯；

【作者基本信息】 中南大学 ， 土木工程规划与管理， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 EPC总承包项目是一项充满风险的事业,成本超支的现象普遍存在,给总承包商和业主带来了严重的利益风险。鉴于此,本文在系统研究国内外总承包项目成本控制和风险管理理论的基础上,利用控制论、系统论、决策论原理,对EPC项目成本控制中的风险进行了有效的控制,达到了降低成本风险的效果。本文的创新点主要有:(1)将项目成本控制原理应用到EPC项目中,首先制定了EPC项目成本控制的基准和成本测量系统,再对成本偏差进行分析,最后纠正成本偏差。(2)在风险定性分析理论基础上,用问卷调查的方法归纳建设项目中的成本风险因素,列出重要性评价系数,按照从大到小的顺序将影响成本的风险因素罗列出来,最后分析了建设项目中成本超支的原因。(3)Monte Carlo模拟方法应用到某EPC中,根据项目的性质,首先确定评价指标,在选择风险变量,确定其概率分布,在随机抽样的基础上计算出评价指标值。最后分析评价指标值,用来指导项目决策。(4)从项目自身的角度,以项目效益最大化为原则,提出风险联合管理策略。并详细阐述了风险联合管理的理论依据、风险分配指导原则和分担原则。本文的结论是:构建一个以项目实施流程为主线的风险管理技术、方法和责任分担奖惩体系,是EPC总承包工程项目成本控制方面风险管理的核心所在。更多还原

【Abstract】 Engineering-Procurement-Construction ( EPC ) general contract projects have lots of uncertain risks, with the cost overspent, general contractor and owner face the serious loss. Therefore, based on cost control and risk management theory of the domestic and overseas general contract projects, the thesis uses control theory, system theory, decision-making theory to manage risks in EPC projects, in order to decrease the risks. These are the creation in the thesis.Firstly, based on the process control mechanism, the theory of cost control is applied to EPC projects. The procedure in EPC projects is that: set down the standards of the cost control, establish cost measurement system, analyze cost motion and control cost excessive motion.Secondly, questionnaire investigation is applied in order to sum up risk factors of construction projects, which are arranged orderly according to significance index in the end, following the seasons of the const overspent are analyzed out.Thirdly, Monte Carlo is applied to one EPC project, in term of project’s characteristic, appraisable index is confirmed firstly, and risk factors are elected, the numbers of appraisable index is computed out, then numerical value is analyzed.Fourthly, risk joint management is brought forward based on maximal benefit of the project itself, including correlative theory foundation, the suggested principle and the distribution standard of the risk distribution.This paper can be concluded that the technology and method of risk management and reward-punishment assessment system that was built up according to project implementation process should be the core of EPC project cost-control risk management.更多还原