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地震分析预测模型及平台研究与实践

The Method and Research on the Model and Platform Construct about the Earthquake Forecast

【作者】 周波

【导师】 瞿有甜;

【作者基本信息】 浙江师范大学 , 计算机软件与理论, 2009, 硕士

【摘要】 自1988年前苏联学者Grony发现地震前在(10.5~12.5μm)热红外增温异常现象后,使利用卫星遥感技术捕获震前热异常信息、预测地震成为可能。本文优选美国国家环境预测中心的多源数据,提出了采用区域差异性混合插值算法思想来实现对数据进行处理,更好地解决了传统卫星热红外观测过程中受云层干扰、无法连续监测地表温度变化的问题,实现了对震前异常增温的有效监测;同时利用天体引潮力周期的计算模型,提取出天体引潮力的周期,解决了在以往研究过程中热红外异常增温多旋回的问题,在此基础上,开发一个地震前的异常增温分析平台,给出了总体开发方案、关键技术以及实现方法。本分析平台采用Visual C++来进行开发,在GRADS(Grid Analysis and DisplaySystem)环境下对多源数据的格式进行提取,然后按照提取的格式来读取数据,在基于天体引潮力计算模型的前提下,利用提出的区域差异性混合插值算法思想实现了对数据的优化处理,并对所研究地区的地表温度差采用颜色来显示,以颜色的像素值来替换温度值,以达到更直观地观测震前异常温度的效果。考虑到震前异常增温具有其特定的空间分布特征,地震分析预测模型及平台的开发,实现了经纬线网格的叠加、城市标志位添加,从而实现了对震前异常增温的空间分析,满足了在宏观上监测特定断层活动的需要,并实现在时域上对震前异常增温的监测。使用本平台来对2006年7月4日河北文安地震和2008年5月12日汶川地震作为实例进行了验证,结果显示:震前异常增温现象明显,且在时域上与天体引潮力变化对应良好,初步研究与探索表明该平台可满足震前异常增温研究的基本需要。

【Abstract】 After former Soviet Union scholar -Grony discovered the phenomenon that abnormal thermal infrared increment(10.5~12.5μm) before the earthquake in the year of 1988, it became possible to forecast earthquake with remote sensing satellite technique. Using National Centers for Environmental Prediction’s data could eliminate the cloud’s influence which results we couldn’t observe the temperature’s change, and it could observe the abnormal temperature’s increment effectively. Combining with the celestial tide-generating force computing model, this paper provides a method to extract the period of the celestial tide-generating force, and develop a analysis platform for observing the change of temperature’s abnormal increment, it also provides the development’s blue print, key technologies and the method of actualizing.This platform is developed by visual C++ language. After extracting the data’ format with Grads(Grid Analysis and Display System), then read the data according the format we get and display the temperature in the form of color, so we can watch the abnormal temperature increment directly from the pictures.The abnormal increment of temperature has its own spatial characters, so this platform overlays the grid of longitude and latitude lines on the pictures and add the city, in this form we could realize the spatial analysis of abnormal temperature’s increment and satisfy the basical acquirement of observing special faultage’s movement.This platform is used to analysis Wen’an and WenChuan Earthquake, the results are as follows :the abnormal temperature increment is obvious, and it matches with the celestial tide-generating force’s change in the time domain. The result shows that the platform can satisfy the research’s basical acquirement.

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