【作者】 王晓深；

【导师】 李雷鸣； 王波；

【作者基本信息】 中国石油大学 ， 项目管理， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 近年来,物流作为“企业第三利润源泉”引起了国内各行业的极大关注。关于物流优化方面的理论研究与实践,也正在不断深入和全面展开。本文立足于中国石油山东销售公司的实际业务,从发现问题、分析问题入手,借鉴国内外的研究成果,以降低企业的物流成本、增加经济效益为目标,主要从加油站销量的准确预测、油库与加油站库存的合理控制、加油站补货点及最佳进货批量的确定、配送时间窗以及配送计划的科学制定等与配送业务密切相关的各方面,对成品油二次物流的优化问题进行了研究和探讨。在对加油站销量预测的研究中,以山东公司实际业务数据为例,对目前常用的算术平均法、移动平均法、指数平滑法的预测效果进行了对比分析后,确定选择采用移动平均法作为定量预测方法,并建立了定量预测与定性预测相结合的预测模型。在对油库与加油站库存的合理控制、加油站补货点与最佳配货批量的确定、配送时间窗的研究中,综合考虑了配送费用最低,库存资金占用合理、车辆运行效率提高三项主要研究目标,分别建立了优化的模型。最后,对配送计划的科学制定进行了重点研究,采用了加油站补货计划生成与配送车辆合理配置两阶段法,分别建立了优化的模型,并选择了遗传算法作为求解方法。在对加油站补货计划生成的研究中,为避免不合理运输现象的发生,建立了加油站补货计划调整与油库库存控制相结合的优化模型,这在目前成品油配送优化研究领域中尚属创新。本文所研究的主要内容,基本上覆盖了成品油配送业务的各主要环节,且均建立了科学的求解模型,具有较强的可操作性,对实现中国石油山东销售公司成品油二次物流优化具有切实的指导意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years, the logistics as"the third profit source of business" caused a great deal of attention in the domestic industry. About theory research and practice of the logistics optimization, is also in full swing and continued to deepen.In this paper, it researches and investigates the problems of refined oil secondary allocation optimizes. Based on actual business of Shandong Marketing Company of PetroChina, from the discovery of the questions, and the analysis of the issue, drawing on the results of research at home and abroad ,in order to reduce logistics costs and increase economic efficiency as the goal, mainly from the gas station to accurately forecast sales volume, oil depots and gas stations a reasonable inventory control, gas stations replenishment point and the best determination of purchase quantities, delivery time windows, as well as the scientific development of distribution plans and so on, which is closely related to various aspects of the distribution business.In the study of forecasting sales volume of gas stations, taking the actual business data in Shandong marketing company as an example, after the comparative analysis on forecasting the effects among the current commonly used arithmetic average method, moving average method, exponential smoothing method, It selects moving-average method as the quantitative prediction method, and establishes the prediction model of combination quantitative prediction and qualitative prediction.In the study of oil depots and gas stations at a reasonable inventory control, replenishment stations with the best determination of distribution volume, and distribution time window, taking the three major research goal including the lowest cost distribution, inventory capital reasonable occupied, the efficiency of vehicles enhancing into account ,it sets up the optimize model separately.Finally, it conducts the key research on the science formulation to allocated and dispatched plan, through two terrace works both the gas station making up the goods plan to produce and the vehicles allocated and dispatched to dispose reasonably, and has established the optimized model separately, and chose the genetic algorithm to take the solution method. In makes up the goods plan production to the gas station in the research, to avoid unreasonable occurred, established the gas station to make up the optimized model which the goods plan adjustment and the fuel depot inventory control unified, it is still the innovation in the present refined oil allocation optimization research area.This article studies the primary coverage, has basically covered refined oil allocation service each key link, and has established the science solution model, has the strong feasibility, has the practical guiding sense to realize the optimizations of refined oil distribution for Shandong Marketing Company of PetroChina.更多还原