【作者】 周巧红；

【导师】 周国华；

【作者基本信息】 西南交通大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 随着世界经济市场化,信息化和全球化的步伐日益加快,移动通讯企业要想在竞争日益激烈而且不确定性高的市场环境中保持长期生存和稳定发展,如何加强战略投资决策的有效性和准确性,从而提高企业的竞争力和价值,成为企业发展的关键问题。本文阐明了传统的投资评价方法对移动通讯企业投资评价的局限性,然后尝试把实物期权理论引入移动通讯企业战略投资的决策之中,根据移动通讯企业战略投资具备的不可逆性,决策的灵活性,以及投资环境的不确定性的特征,提出实物期权理论对于战略投资决策评价的适用性;然后对移动通讯企业投资特点进行实物期权特性分析,构建移动通讯企业投资的实物期权分析框架,运用二项式期权定价方法,构建了实物期权模型并运用中国移动是否投资扩张3G项目进行了实证分析。结论得出在考虑不确定性和等待期权的情况下,运用实物期权方法得到的企业价值要远远大于运用传统净现值法得到的企业价值。同时通过对期权价值的分析,发现3G前景可观,使得电信运营商都会尽量获取3G牌照。文章只是从定量分析方面引入二项式期权定价模型,由于战略投资环境不确定性和实物期权本身复杂性的存在,本文所出的方法不可能成为解决移动通讯企业战略投资决策的固定模式,而只能提供一种理解和分析问题的思路和方法。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the development of world economy globalization, the mobile telecommunication enterprises have to strengthen the validity of the strategic investment decision-making, enhance the competitive ability and its own value in order to survive and develop in long term in the intensely competitive, complex and changeable market environment, Therefore, for the mobile telecommunication enterprises, how to seek strategic investment decision-making ,enhance the competitive ability and its own value become the key issue.This paper attempts to introduce real option theory into strategy investment decision-making for mobile telecommunication enterprises. According to characters of their strategic investment such as unreversibility, flexibility, and uncertainty, it proves that the strategic investment has the characteristic of real option, and expounds the disadvantages of traditional DCF method and the advantage of real option theory in the strategic investment decision-making appraisal. Then, based on the analysis of characters of strategic investment in mobile telecommunication field, an analysis model of appraisal strategy investment decision-making has been constructed by applying the binomial options tree method to evaluate. Finally, this paper employs the investment for 3G project in china mobile company as an example to demonstrate the advantage of this model and make analysis on the results. The project value obtained by binomial options tree method is much larger than that obtained by DCF method, from which we know that the 3G would bring so huge benefit that mobile communication companies would like to develop 3G project.This paper only introduces the binomial tree pricing model in the quantitative analysis aspect, as the complexity of strategic investment decision-making under the indefinite environment and real option itself, the impossible to be a fixed pattern to solve the strategic in this article is investment decision-making, but it only can provide one kind of analysis mentality and method. Further endeavor is needed in order to consummate the research of real option pricing method and serve the strategic investment decision-making.更多还原