【作者】 常建波；

【导师】 李海波；

【作者基本信息】 西南交通大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 我国证券市场上,上市公司股票价值的评估无疑是一个难题。而传统的股票定价方法是基于股票现值应该等于该股票未来所有红利的现值这个假设前提下的。该假设简单地认为股票的价值可以通过对未来预测的现金流进行贴现而获得,即该假设是将股票的价值放在确定性条件下进行衡量的。但实际上,大多数公司的价值都包括了现金流价值和期权价值。一般来说,公司的生产和经营活动会产生稳定的现金流,同时公司的科研开发和市场拓展活动会产生期权价值。传统的定价模式,把所有的公司都放在现金流价值的标尺上进行衡量,结果被证明是不完全合理的。现金流贴现的方法只适用于那些具有稳定业务收入,没有不确定性增长的公司的价值评估。为完善股票价值的评估方法,本文使用理论分析与案例分析相结合的方法展开研究,主要内容包括:(1)股票的价值影响因素部分,主要通过宏观和微观两方面进行分析,说明股票价值的影响因素既包括GDP、通货膨胀、利率、汇率和财政政策、货币政策等和公司所处行业的特征及公司的基本面因素与财务指标还包括公司净资产、公司盈利水平等微观因素。(2)股票价值的构成分析部分,主要是通过对行业特征的分析,指出不是任何企业都可以采用传统的贴现现金流方法估值,由于任何企业都既包含确定性的现金流价值也包含不确定性的期权价值,只是根据行业特征不同,其侧重点不同而已。(3)股票估值模型分析部分,主要通过分析现有模型的局限性,进而提出新的估值模型。(4)案例分析部分,以医药行业中的双鹭药业公司为例进行估值。其路径为:首先采用PE模型对其估值,指出这种模型的局限,然后针对双鹭药业的特征一分为二地对其进行估值,使用FCFE模型对其现有产品进行估值,使用B-S模型对其已获取产品批文但尚未投产的不确定性价值进行估值,然后将两个价值加总,从而得出该股票的真正价值。(5)结论与展望部分,总结了研究工作的重要意义、存在的问题和有待拓展之处。更多还原

【Abstract】 It is no doubt that the stock evaluation of listed company is a difficult problem on our country bond market. The traditional stock fixed price method is based on the premise that stock current value ought to be equal to the current value owing all stock future bonus.The hypothesis thinks that stock value is discounted current value of forecast cash flow, namely, the hypothesis is measured under detenninacy condition. However, in fact, the value of majority companies all not only includes cash flow value but also option value. Generally speaking, company’s operations may produce the stable cash flow, at the same time, the research and development of the company may make option value. Traditional fixed price model that all companies be measured on the cash flow scale turned out to be unreasonable. The discounted cash flow method is applied to those companies only when they have stabilize business income and have no the uncertainty increases.In order to impove it, this paper carries on applied research combining theory analysis with case analysis .Its main contents as followings:(1) In the part of the influencing factor of stock value , mainly carries on the analysis through macroscopic and the microscopic two aspects, the analysis explains that the influencing factor of stock value not only includes GDP, the inflation, the interest rate, the exchange rate and the financial policy, the monetary policy, the profession characteristic that the company locates, company’s fundamental plane factor and the financial norm but also includes the company net assets, the level of company ’profit, company’s dividend policy and so on.(2) In the part of the stock value constitution analysis, it mainly analyses the industry characteristic and then points out that not all enterprise may use traditional DCF method to evalue, because any enterprise not only contains the definite cash flow value but also contains the uncertainty option value. So, we should use different evaluation methods according to profession difference.(3) In the part of stock evaluation model analysis, it mainly analyses the limitation of existed model and points out the new evaluation model.(4) In the part of the case analysis, with the example of slpharm, firstly, it carries on the value assessment using PE model and points out the limitation of the kind model. Then it carries on the value assesment in view of the slpharm characteristic, it carries on the value assessment for its existed product using the FCFE model and for its patent abtained but not yet go into production using the B-S model, lastly it pluses the value of existed product with the value of the patent, thus obtaining the true value of this stock.(5)In the part of the conclusion and perspective, it points out the positive significance of the research, the existing problems and the field to expand it.更多还原