【作者】 朱金明；

【导师】 袁桂秋；

【作者基本信息】 浙江工商大学 ， 数量经济学， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 上市公司的整体质量和价值直接关系到公司的吸引力和竞争力,是公司在市场中实现健康、稳定、可持续发展的关键环节。上市公司估值是证券分析中最重要、最关键的环节,但绝不仅是公司各项资产简单的评估加总,而是将公司及公司的内部经营单位、分支机构看作一个经营整体对其持续经营价值进行判断、估计的过程,也是对公司未来经营效果水平进行科学量化的过程。传统的公司价值估计理论与方法是估计公司的重要财务指标、预测财务报表,主要有主营业务收入增长率与现金流,这只是公司价值体现的一个方面,不能够全面反映公司价值。本文通过仔细分析我国目前上市公司状况和研究现状,将理论阐述与实证分析相结合,建立了基于全要素生产率的价值评估模型,重点研究了年均股价模型,说明了全要素生产率与公司价值之间的关系,进而间接比较公司价值大小,并利用中国石油化工行业的上市公司进行了实证分析。本文通过DEA方法计算得到的全要素生产率指数,有效回避了宏观经济的影响,体现了公司的经营能力,主要包括盈利能力和发展能力等。本文得到的模型不仅体现当期的全要素生产率指数在公司估值模型中有比较高的权重,而且全要素生产率指数的滞后期对公司价值亦有较大影响,滞后一期的为正,该结论印证了公司能力理论中关于公司既是各种资源和能力积累沉淀,又是不断创新发展的结果。同时,模型的实证检验各个统计指标都比较好,具有比较强的统计意义,说明本文得到的估值模型能比较客观地评估公司价值,能更好地服务于市场交易和投资决策。更多还原

【Abstract】 The overall quality and the value of listed companies have a direct relationship to the their attraction and competition, and are the key to healthy, stable, and sustainable development in the market. Valuation of the securities of listed companies is the most important and crucial step in the security analysis. This is absolutely not a simple summation of the assets assessment, but the process of judging and estimating the persistent management value regarding the company and its internal business units and branch organization as a whole. Furthermore it is the process of scientific quantifying the future operating level of the company.The traditional theories and methods estimating the value of the company are estimating the company’s key financial indicators as well as forecasting the financial report forms, which mainly are business revenue growth rate and cash flow of the company. However, this is only an aspect of the company value and can not completely reflect the actual value. The paper combined the theory with empirical analysis and established the assessment model based on the value of total factor productivity (TFP) by carefully analyzing of Chinese listed companies and research valuation status quo. We focused on the average annual share price model and explained the relationship between total factor productivity and the company’s value, which made the indirect comparison of the value of the companies possible. Then we made the empirical analysis of Chinese Petroleum and Chemical Industry the listed companies.The article used the DEA method to calculate the total factor productivity index which could help avoiding macro-economic impact effectively. The TFP index reflected the operating ability of the company, which mainly including profitability and development capacity, and so on. In this paper, the current model not only showed that the total factor productivity index had a relatively high weight in the company valuation model, but also that one period lag of the TFP index had a positive and great impact of the value of the company. The conclusions proved that the company ability theory that the company itself was the accumulation of the various resources and capabilities as well as the result of constant innovation and development. At the same time, various of statistical indexes in the empirical testing of the model showed strong statistical significance. We drew the conclusion that the valuation model could be an objective assessment of the value of the company and better serve the market transactions and investment decision-making.更多还原