【作者】 毛琳；

【导师】 陈宽民；

【作者基本信息】 长安大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 城市新区是城市发展到一定历史时期的必然产物,是城市规模扩大的基本方式,其规划的好坏与成败直接关系整座城市发展的快慢,新区的公交线网规划更是新区发展规划的重要部分。传统的公交规划在进行公交OD量预测时,是以大量的调查数据为基础,以四阶段法为主要步骤,因而具有较高的精度。但是,在对城市新区进行公交OD量预测时,传统的交通预测方法遇到了难题,因为新区尚处于开发建设初期,交通调查无法实施。因此,建立适合于新区特点的交通预测模型,就显得相当的迫切和重要。本文以城市新区为研究对象,在总结分析国内外研究成果的基础上,对比分析新、老城区在交通预测上存在的差别,考虑新区交通预测的特点,从交通小区的区位土地利用信息入手,建立了适用于新区的交通生成、分布预测模型以及公交出行方式分担率的计算方法,提出了在没有现状交通出行调查的情况下进行新区客运交通需求预测的方法,具有重要的理论价值和现实意义。本文共分为五部分。首先,分析了城市新区的概念、类型,确立文章研究对象——外延型新区;其次,分析了新区公共交通发展环境,明确新区公交的发展定位;然后,引入区位势能的概念和小区区位土地利用信息量化模型,结合新区特点,建立了基于人口和土地利用的交通生成预测模型和基于重力模型的交通分布预测模型,并在确定新区公交出行方式分担率的基础上,计算出新区公共交通OD量;第四,分析新区公交线网规划的基本原则与思路,提出了结合现状的初始公交网络布设方法和初始方案优化方法;最后,本文以西咸共建区的重点建设区域——沣渭新区为例,在总结其公交现状问题的基础上,提出了规划年的公交线网规划方案。更多还原

【Abstract】 New urban district is an inevitable result of the development of city and an indispensable component of the city. It’s a basic mode which the urban scale expands. Its planning related to the whole success of the pace of urban development directly, at the same time its’ public transport planning is an more important part for the economic and social development. The traditional public transport planning has higher accuracy because it’s based on a large number of surveys and four-stage method. However, in the new urban public transport OD forecasts, the traditional method encountered problems. The new urban district has on construction; we can’t do any investigation about it. Therefore, to establish suitable traffic forecasting model for the new urban areas is very urgent and important.This paper researches on new urban districts. On the basis of analyzing the existing research outcomes, comparing and analyzing the differences between new urban districts and old urban districts in traffic forecast, considering the features of traffic forecast for new urban districts, it starts form the location land use information of traffic zones, and establishes traffic production and distribution forecast models which are fit for new urban districts.This paper includes five parts. First of all, its analyzes the type of new urban area, then determines the research area-extensive new area; Second, I have a clear target for the development of public transport; Third, location potential energy is presented and the location land use information quantification model is established. Combination features of new district, a traffic and distribution model is established, and then calculated the public transport OD of new area. Fourth, analysis of the basic principles of public transportation network planning and ideas, put forward a combination of the status quo methods of transit network layout; Finally, this paper has an example-Fengwei New District, at the conclusion of its public status made a public transportation network planning program for the planning year.更多还原