【作者】 纪沛；

【导师】 汪平；

【作者基本信息】 首都经济贸易大学 ， 会计学， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 面对市场经济的发展与全球信息化的迅速推进,公司兼并与收购重组战略是公司成长、成熟与稳定乃至全球化过程中最为关键的经营战略之一。通过兼并与收购,可以取得规模经济与降低经营风险。同时,可以推动社会的产业结构调整、优化资源配置,提高经济的整体竞争能力。而标的公司的未来价值上升预测被认为是兼并与收购买卖的核心,能否确定合理的成交价关系着兼并与收购的成败。因此,对兼并与收购中标的公司未来价值上升预测的理论与实践研究是适应经济发展客观形势的要求的。以往的公司未来价值上升预测方法忽视了公司兼并与收购中的期权价值,从而低估了公司的价值。本文主要分析了公司兼并与收购中的期权特性,并建立了公司兼并与收购的实物期权未来价值上升预测框架。利用实物期权思想来识别兼并与收购中的期权特性,并建立了实物期权未来价值上升预测框架。在分析了折现现金流量法的基础上,本文研究了如何在标的公司的未来价值上升预测中应用实物期权未来价值上升预测框架。通过有机地结合折现现金流量法与实物期权测算框架,建立了标的公司未来价值上升预测框架。论文的研究结果表明,实物期权可以被应用于国内公司的兼并与收购行为中,具体表现在两个方面:第一,对标的公司为ST公司的股权价值实施测算;第二,对通过兼并与收购所获得的投资机会实施未来价值上升预测。论文还进一步提出了实物期权在公司兼并与收购中具备价值的限制条件,为兼并与收购双方正确认识公司兼并与收购过程中所蕴含的实物期权价值提供了有意义的参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the rapid development of economy and the global information, the company M & A strategy on the company’s growth, maturity, stability and the process of globalization is the most important business strategy.Through M and A can be achieved by economies of scale and reduce operational risks. At the same time, it can promote industrial restructuring, optimize resource allocation, improve the competitiveness. And assess the value of the target company be considered the core of M & A transactions, determine a reasonable purchase price related to the success or failure of mergers and acquisitions. Therefore, the target company in M & A valuation theory and practice of research is to adapt to the economic development of the requirements of the objective situation.Traditional valuation methods of the company ignored the company’s mergers and acquisitions in the option value and thus underestimate the value of the company. In this paper, analysis of the company’s M & A options characteristics, and set up the company’s M & A Real Option Valuation Model. Use of real options thinking to identify the characteristics of M & A options, and set up a real option valuation model. In an analysis of discounted cash flow method, this paper how the target company’s value assessment of the application of real options valuation model. Through organic combination of discounted cash flow method and real options evaluation model, set up the target company valuation model. Thesis research results show that real options can be applied to domestic enterprises mergers and acquisitions activities, specifically manifested in two aspects: First, the target company shares for the ST value assessment; Secondly, through mergers and acquisitions obtained to assess the value of investment opportunities. It was further put forward a thesis of real options in mergers and acquisitions have value in limiting conditions for the acquisition of a correct understanding of both mergers and acquisitions process inherent in the value of real options provides a meaningful reference.更多还原