中国煤电冲突机理及解决途径研究

【作者】 胡倩；

【导师】 李旭；

【作者基本信息】 复旦大学 ， 物流与运营管理， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 中国煤炭行业和电力行业自1993年实行煤炭价格改革以来,双方在电煤交易环节就一直存在着冲突,冲突主要体现为电煤交易价格之争。已有许多学者基于博弈的视角来研究煤电冲突并提出相应的政策建议,本文则是基于系统动力学视角来研究煤电冲突,重点研究中国煤炭市场为什么会呈现波动性,这是本文的创新之所在。本文通过建立系统动力学模型,研究发现,煤炭市场供求波动有两方面的原因:一方面来自煤炭供应系统的内部结构,主要是煤矿投资者作出投资决策后,要历经很长的延迟煤炭产量才会发生相应的变动,这就好比库存管理系统中的订货提前期,另外就是占煤炭总产量30%以上的乡镇煤矿,对煤炭价格非常敏感,这就增大煤炭供应总量波动的可能性;另一方面就是煤炭供应系统外部的原因,主要是占煤炭总需求一半以上的电力用煤需求由于宏观经济波动和用电的季节性而存在波动,然后就是外部政策,比如对待小煤矿的政策,鼓励或关停,给煤炭供应系统带来的波动。本文还运用系统动力学理论中计算延迟的办法,计算出煤炭波动周期大致为7年,与历史统计数据完全一致。这个波动周期是相当长的,正因为此,政府调节煤炭供求平衡来解决煤电冲突才颇有难度,这也是煤电冲突与一般供应链两相邻节点企业之间冲突不同的地方。本文在分析了中国煤炭市场波动的原因之后,提出了六个解决途径,包括:一缩短煤炭生产提前期,二控制乡镇煤矿占煤炭总产量的比重,三减少电力需求波动的影响,四尽量减少外部政策给煤炭供求带来波动,五大力发展煤炭进出口贸易,在国内煤炭供求不平衡时,通过进出口来平衡国内煤炭供求,六是鼓励煤、电双方签定长期合同来平滑煤炭价格波动。同时也对这六个解决途径分别提出了一些政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 China has witnessed a persistent conflict between the coal industry and electricity industry,mainly in the form of price fighting,ever since 1993 when the coal industry established a marketing reform.Scholars have made much research into this problem with many policy options given.However,most of them used Game Theory to study this problem,In the paper,the author studied coal-electricity conflict from the perspective of System Dynamics,and was focused on the oscillations and long cycle in the coal market,which was a good supplement to the former research.It was found in the paper that there were several causes for the oscillations of coal market:both endogenous and exogenous.The long delay existing in the coal supply system,mainly construction time of coal capacity,was found to be one of the endogenous causes for the oscillations.Another endogenous cause could be the town-owned coal mines,which accounted for more than 30%of the total coal production,and which was very sensitive to coal price.The exogenous causes for the oscillations fell into two categories:first,the oscillations in the coal demand,and the uncertainty rising from governmental policies.Also looked into was the cycle of coal market,which was found to be 7 years.This replicated the historical data,and was also why it was so difficult for the government to balance coal supply and demand in order to solve coal-electricity conflict since it was really a big cycle.Several policy options were recommended to the government in order to relieve or remove coal-electricity conflict.First,it was suggested that the government reduce the lead time of coal production.Second,effect can be made to control the percentage that town-owned mines account for of the total coal production.Third,attention can be paid to smoothing electricity demand for a smooth coal demand.Forth,it was recommended that the government steer those town-owned coal mines in a reasonable way so as to reduce and control the large swing of coal supply by them.Fifth, government can work to promote the development of coal import and export.Finally, it was recommended that coal enterprise and electricity enterprise sign long-term contract to smooth the oscillations in the coal price.更多还原