【作者】 刘凤岭；

【导师】 赵昕；

【作者基本信息】 中国海洋大学 ， 金融学， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 我国保险业在过去的数年中取得了骄人成绩,尤其是财险市场的发展。但是在快速发展的过程中由于外部经营环境已经发生重大变化,保险业正面临着巨大的潜在风险。偿付能力问题也日益严重,2008年有12家财险公司偿付能力不足,占到了11.7%,其中2家偿付能力严重不足。加强对保险公司偿付能力的监管,日益成为关注的焦点。本文从最低偿付能力和实际偿付能力两个角度出发,分析国内财险市场的偿付能力分析状况,借鉴国外经验为国内监管提出部分建议。第一个问题是国内最低偿付能力。根据净保费和净赔款数据采用比例法得出偿付能力表达式,并且将计算结果与现在国家规定相比较和分析,提出两点建议。第一,发现现行偿付能力指标规定偏低,为了达到控制风险和有效监管的目的,应该相应的提高监管要求。第二,虽然中国非寿险公司的数量明显增加,但是市场集中度仍然较高。人保、太平洋财险、平安财险始终占据前三,2007年数据显示,这三个公司占据了68%的市场份额。外资保险公司保费收入增长较快,但是和三大巨头相比还是不足以抗衡。国内财险公司的实际偿付能力状况参差不齐,为了刺激理性发展,引入NCD模型对偿付能力状况好的公司鼓励他们发展,而对状况差的公司限制发展。经过创新,就会在加强偿付能力要求的同时,根据每个公司的以往偿付情况,对最低偿付能力加以调整,使有能力的公司得到更快的发展。第二个问题是分析实际偿付能力状况。从财务指标、公司规模及业务稳定性等多角度选择指标,然后采用主成分分析法将指标因子中累积贡献率超过85%的因子筛选为有效评价指标。根据有效评价指标得分确定财险公司的偿付能力。分析发现和外资财险公司相比,中资财险公司在资产投资效益、资产负债合理配置、监管的重视等方面都存在很大的不足。最后,根据国际监管趋势和前面的结论,为国内监管模式提出了几点建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Insurance industry in china has gained much success in the past few years, especially the development of property insurance. But due to the big changes of external environment, Insurance industry faces huge potential risk. The solvency problem is more and more serious. 12 companies’ solvency is insufficient in 2008, it is about 11.7% of all the companies and 2 of them are in serious bad condition. Reinforcing the supervision has been brought into focus. We analyzed the solvency situation from two facts: minimum payment capacity and actual payment capacity. Then refer to foreign countries’ experience and give some suggestion to supervision of solvency of property insurance company of China.The first question is about the minimum payment capacity. It uses proportional method and net premium data and pure claim cost to expression payment capacity of insurance companies. After compare with the rules, it gives two suggestions. First, Compulsory Index is low. To be able to control risk and monitor effectively, the compulsory Index should be increased. Second, although the number of property insurance companies increased, the market concentration is very high. PICC、CPPI and PAPC are always top three in the insurance market. The three companies finished 68% market share in 2006. Although foreign-funded insurance company has big increase, it still cannot compare with the big three. Use NCD model to bring forth new ideas into the minimum payment capacity system, adjust the minimum payment capacity refer to the past years solvency condition. In that case, we can not only have high demand on the payment capacity but also can make the companies have better development.The second question is about the actual solvency, we choose evaluating indicators from financial index、Company size、stability of operating and so on. Then use Principle Components Analysis to filter out the effective indexes. Finally use effective indexes to evaluate companies’ solvency. The outcome indicates property insurance company in China has many imperfect on investment efficiency、asset and liability balance、the emphasis on supervision and so on. Finally refer to the further development of supervision and outcomes several suggestions are given to Chinese further development on supervision of solvency of Chinese property insurance companies.更多还原