【作者】 陈青云；

【导师】 曾昭法；

【作者基本信息】 湖南大学 ， 统计学， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 当今世界,环境问题引起越来越多的关注,经济增长与环境污染之间的关系已经成为国内外学者研究的热点问题。改革开放以来,我国经济高速发展,伴随着各种各样的问题产生,研究中国的经济增长与环境污染之间的关系意义尤为重大。基于我国区域经济发展的不均衡性,本文分别从东部地区、中部地区和西部地区三个经济区域出发,分别研究各区域的经济增长与环境污染的关系。环境库兹涅茨曲线作为度量经济发展影响环境质量的最佳方法,成为该领域研究的重要选择。因此,本文以环境库兹涅茨曲线为参考点,根据我国2000-2007年的数据,构造环境—收入曲线模型,对我国不同经济区域进行对比研究。为了验证我国三大经济区域经济增长与环境污染之间的关系,本文引入了环境—经济系统的概念,分为“和谐”、“矛盾”、“和谐—矛盾—和谐”三种情况讨论了经济与环境之间的关系。环境库兹涅茨曲线正好印证了“和谐—矛盾—和谐”的关系,其形状呈现倒U型。以倒U型转折点做分界线,倒U型被分成了左半段和右半段,左半段区域被称为环境与经济的两难区,右半段区域被称为环境与经济的双赢区。一个国家或地区的环境—经济所处阶段,可通过实际人均GDP与转折点比较得到。根据上述思路方法,本文用人均GDP指标代表经济增长,五大工业污染物排放量指标代表环境污染,利用面板数据建立了基本模型,分别拟合了我国东部、中部、西部的环境—收入曲线。为了进一步研究其他因素是否影响环境—收入曲线,本文又添加了人口规模、进出口贸易、产业结构三大控制变量,建立了扩展模型,分别拟合了我国东部、中部、西部的扩展环境—收入曲线。随后,本文对比了我国不同区域之间的环境—收入曲线的差异,又对比了基本模型和扩展模型拟合结果的差异。通过上述两种对比,本文得出以下结论:第一,我国三个经济区域的环境影响因素不相同;第二,如果模型选取控制变量不同,得到的拟合结果可能不同;第三,在我国并非所有的污染物拟合曲线都符合传统的环境库兹涅茨倒U型。更多还原

【Abstract】 In today’s world, environmental problems caused by more and more concerned, the relationship between economic growth and environmental pollution at home and abroad has become a hot issue of research scholars. Since reform and opening up of China, rapid economic development, along with a wide range of issues, to study the relationship between economic growth and environmental pollution becomes important. Based on China’s uneven regional economic development, this article from the eastern region, central region and the western region to study the relationship. Environmental Kuznets curve has become an important choice as the best way to measure the relationship between economic growth and environmental pollution. Therefore, the environmental Kuznets curve as a reference point, according to China’s 2000-2007 data, tectonic environment - income curve model to study the different economic regions.In order to verify the relationship between economic growth and environmental pollution of the three major economic regions, the paper introduces the concept environment-economic system, from "harmony", "contradiction", "Harmony - contradictions - a harmonious", the three situations to discuss the relationship. Environmental Kuznets Curve showed inverted U-shape, demonstrates that the "harmony - contradictions - a harmonious" relationship. Inverted U-turning-point divide the curve into left and right of the paragraph, above left, known as the regional environment and economic dilemma zone, right above the region known as the environmental and economic win-win District. Through the real per capita GDP compared with the turning point, we can see the stage of the country or region.According to the idea of method, using the GDP per capita on behalf of economic growth, the five indicators of industrial emissions on behalf of environmental pollution, establish the basic model with the panel data, and fit curves of the three regions. In order to further study whether other factors affect the environment - the income curve, the paper adds three factors, respectively establish the expansion model, and fit new curves. Then, the paper contracts the curves of the different regions, and contracts the difference of the basic model and the expansion model.Through the above-mentioned two types of contrast, the paper reaches the following conclusions: First, the environmental impact factors are not identical of China’s three economic regions; Second, if select different factors, the fitting results could be different; Third, not all fitting curves are in line with traditional environmental Kuznets inverted U.更多还原