【作者】 杨帆；

【导师】 张征；

【作者基本信息】 北京林业大学 ， 环境科学， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 近年来,我国水污染事故频繁发生,在严重污染环境、威胁人群健康的同时,更对国家经济发展造成巨大损失。事故的突发性和不确定性是防治工作的难点,环境预警技术正是在这种背景下产生和发展的,它是事故预防和应急处理的可行手段,其研究价值巨大、应用前景广阔。本文在回顾和总结国内外水污染事故预警相关研究的基础上,重点对我国水环境污染事故发生类型进行归因统计分析,为警源指标的确定提供依据;从污染事故源、水环境状况、受体特征和社会经济水平四个方面对水污染事故重要影响因子进行分析,为警兆指标的确定提供参考;对主流指标筛选技术进行比对研究,分析其特点及适用范围,为预警指标体系构建提供方法;形成水污染事故预警指标构建流程,并应用于南京化工园区可利亚多元醇有限公司的贮罐区原料泄露模拟事故,建立了相应预警指标体系。研究结果表明,设备工艺故障、危险物品转移事故和人为疏忽失误是造成我国水污染事故的主要原因,占研究案例的91.7%,针对其特点本研究设计的风险源调查表对于收集和分析潜在风险源信息具有一定应用价值;事故源特点、水环境状况、受体特征和社会经济水平四个方面的影响因子基本描述了水污染事故整体,影响因子的归纳和总结为研究水污染事故过程提供参考;重点研究的六种指标筛选方法中,层次分析法(AHP)具有科学性、准确性和算法简单等方面的优势,可作为预警指标筛选的首选方法,但具体情况还要具体分析;研究所构建的普适性水污染事故预警指标体系包括警度指标、警源指标和警兆指标三个层面,从事故危害等级、发生类型和影响因素反映水污染事故过程,为预警工作的开展提供一定参考依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 Recently,water pollution accidents occur frequently in China,contaminating environment seriously,threating population health and causing enormous economic losses.Abruptness and uncertainty of the accidents are difficult problems in preventing and controlling.Environmental warning technology emergence and develop on this background,which is the effective means for accident prevention and emergency treatment,and has great research value and broad application prospects.The paper reviews both domestic and foreign researches regarding water pollution accidents warming.On this basis,accident type of water pollution in china is statistical analyzed emphatically, providing evidence for choosing alarm source index.Important influence factors of water pollution accidents are summarized in the respects of pollution accident source,water environment situation, receptor features and social economic standard,providing reference for determining alarm aura index. Mainstream index screening technologies comparative studied to analyze the principle characteristics and the application scopes,providing methods for establishing alarm index system.Establishing flow of early-warming index in water pollution accidents which is applied to the raw-leaking simulating accident in storage tank zone of KOREA Polyol Company in nanjing chemical industry is built up with reference value.The findings get such conclusions as follows:equipment＆process defaults,hazard products transportation accidents and human factors are major causes for water pollution accidents which account for 91.7%of the research cases,and they should be key concerned in risk sources Identification. Understand and grasp environmental-risk basic information of research area using risk-source identification lists which are specially designed.Influencing factors of pollution accident source,water environment situation,receptor features and social economic standard describe the whole water pollution accidents,and the induction and conclusion provide reference for researching water pollution accidents process.AHP method has advantages in scientific,accuracy,simple algorithm and so on comparing to other celected methods,which should be used as the first choice for index screening in some cases.The established universal index system of water pollution accidents includes alert degree index,alert source index and alert aura index which reflect damage grade,ancident causes and influence factors to provide reference for early-warning work.更多还原