【作者】 唐娟；

【导师】 刘明周；

【作者基本信息】 合肥工业大学 ， 工业工程， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 在现代制造模式下,生产过程中存在着大量的不确定性因素,导致物流瓶颈频繁漂移,使得以“原先瓶颈”为中心制定的生产计划和控制决策偏离实际生产过程。针对这种情况,目前主要采用事后调整方式优化生产过程以被动地适应瓶颈的动态变化。为实现由这种“追逐”瓶颈的事后生产过程控制模式向事前控制模式的转变,需要能够准确地预测瓶颈漂移的趋势。鉴于国内外对生产物流瓶颈漂移预测方法研究的欠缺,本文旨在研究不确定性环境下制造车间生产物流瓶颈漂移预测方法:首先从瓶颈漂移现象产生的原因出发,采用自上而下的思维方式,建立瓶颈漂移现象的概念模型,以分析瓶颈漂移因素,并采用时间能力因子、时间需求因子和质量保证能力因子对各种瓶颈漂移因素进行数字化描述;然后利用马尔可夫链描述各种瓶颈漂移因素的状态空间和转移概率,构建独立贡献矩阵和综合贡献矩阵,实现瓶颈漂移因素耦合机理的定量描述;提出综合瓶颈度概念以描述制造单元的瓶颈动态属性,建立包含瓶颈指数、瓶颈漂移指数和瓶颈漂移敏感指数的综合瓶颈度度量指标体系,在分析制造单元瓶颈动态属性的基础上,实现瓶颈漂移规律的科学描述;以综合瓶颈度为基础,构建生产物流瓶颈漂移预测模型,实现瓶颈动态变化的准确预测,为生产过程控制和优化提供决策支持和技术手段;最后,以安徽安凯福田曙光车桥有限公司装配生产线为例,验证该瓶颈漂移预测方法的有效性和实用性。更多还原

【Abstract】 In modern manufacturing pattern, there are many uncertain factors in the manufacturing process, which cause production logistics bottleneck frequently shift, making decisions of production planning and control based on formed bottleneck deviate from practical production process. Aiming at this situation, present researches mainly apply afterwards control to optimize production process to passively adapt to bottleneck changes. If the direction of bottleneck shifting can be accurately forecasted, the transition from afterwards control of chasing bottleneck to beforehand control can be realized. As we know, there are a lot of deficiencies about the abroad and domestic research on prediction method about bottleneck shifting of production logistics, so this paper expatiates on prediction method about production logistics bottleneck shifting of manufacturing shop in uncertain environment:Firstly, starting from the cause of bottleneck shifting, adopting the mode of top-down thinking to build conceptual model about bottleneck shifting phenomenon, which is applied to analyze bottleneck shifting factors, then the digitized description of bottleneck shifting factors is conducted with time-capability factor ,time-requirement factor and quality assurance capability factor; secondly, Markov Chain is used for describing the state space and transition probability of different bottleneck shifting factors, independent contribution matrix and comprehensive contribution matrix are established to quantitatively describe the coupling mechanism of bottleneck shifting factors;thirdly,to realize scientific description of bottleneck shifting law based on analyzing dynamic property in bottleneck of manufacturing cell, the comprehensive bottleneck degree is proposed to depict dynamic property in bottleneck of manufacturing cell, and then measurement system including bottleneck index, bottleneck shifting index and bottleneck shifting sensitivity index is built; prediction model of production logistics bottleneck is founded to accurately forecast the dynamic changes of bottleneck based on comprehensive bottleneck degree; In the end, an example of an assembly line in ANHUI ANKAI FUTIAN SHUGUANG AXLE CO.,LTD is offered to verify the validity and practicability of the prediction method.更多还原