【作者】 高先务；

【导师】 刘心报；

【作者基本信息】 合肥工业大学 ， 管理系统工程， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 本文认为专家构造判断矩阵的过程应是灰盒子,而不应是黑盒子,专家应给出的是知识矩阵,判断矩阵是知识矩阵中的结论构成的矩阵。本文通过对专家决策过程的模拟,发现判断矩阵的一致性是可靠性的必要条件,但不是充分条件。因此,提出不能以判断矩阵的一致性作为专家意见取舍或评价的唯一标准,而应综合分析专家提供的知识矩阵信息。最终提出确定专家意见可靠性的方法。专家构造判断矩阵的过程,就是一个不断做出判断的过程。如果一个专家给出的判断矩阵是客观、公正、合理的,则应满足下列条件:专家有能力,即专家应有相关方面足够的知识和经验。专家有足够的信息,即专家对各个方案事实有充分的了解。专家有认真的态度,即不会有非理性的偏好,这一点往往被人们忽视。对于能力的可靠性,本文通过让专家构造知识矩阵来检验。对于信息(事实)可靠性,本文通过从知识矩阵检验中获得的信息可靠性与最终的判断矩阵做相关分析后给出结论。对专家的态度,本文通过对各方案的误差作方差分析后给出结论。在完成以上检验后,如果判断矩阵是符合要求的,本文利用遗传算法求得相对稳定的权重向量。更多还原

【Abstract】 This dissertation agrees on that the process of expert’s making judgment is like a grey box not a black box. The expert should give a knowledge matrix not a judgment matrix only. The dissertation finds that CR value is not a sufficient condition but only an essential condition through imitating expert’s judgment. So value on judgment of expert can’t be available only on CR value. The value should be from knowledge matrix. Finally the dissertation gives a method of evaluating expert’s knowledge matrix.The process of making judgment matrix is a continuous deciding one. If a judgment matrix is objective just and reasonable, the follows must be satisfied.Capacity of expert that is knowledge and experiences of certain aspect.Sufficient information , that is experts must be familiar with all schemesSerious attitude that is experts must be just.As to reliability of capacity, the dissertation evaluates it through knowledge matrix. As to reliability of information, the dissertation makes conclusion through amplifying result of before with judgment matrix. As to attitude of expert, analysis of variance is used to obtain result.After those checks, if the judgment matrix is satisfied, the steady vector of weigh can be find through GA.更多还原