【作者】 尚文涛；

【导师】 冯晓；

【作者基本信息】 重庆交通大学 ， 道路与铁道工程， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 滑坡形变监测是滑坡安全监控中的重要内容,对滑坡形变的监测资料进行及时、合理、有效的分析,获取滑坡变形规律和安全状况是滑坡形变监测的重要工作之一,为判断边坡的安全状况和稳定性提供科学依据。本文采用现代监测技术、数值模拟及灰色系统理论预测的方法,从工程地质、监测数据分析以及数值模拟三个方面,以西藏樟木口岸滑坡为例,研究了监测系统布置、三维建模方法、采用灰色系统理论预测滑坡的变形发展趋势。取得的主要成果如下:(1)详细描述了樟木滑坡监测项目的选择、仪器选型、监测布置以及观测方法的设计过程。(2)通过对滑坡监测数据的采集与处理,边坡的稳定状态的分析,及时调整设计参数与防护措施。(3)引入了FLAC这种先进的岩土工程计算软件,研究了FLAC-3D软件的技术特点与使用方法,应用该软件对樟木滑坡进行了稳定性分析计算。(4)以樟木滑坡位移监测数据为基础,建立GM(1,1)预测模型,对滑坡的位移发展进行预测。(5)通过监测数据结合理论分析,表明樟木滑坡目前处于基本稳定状态。FLAC数值模拟、滑坡滑裂面分析、结合滑坡深部位移监测能对滑坡安全稳定做出合理判别,灰色理论对樟木滑坡位移变形的预测,通过与实测数据对比证明预测模型拟合、预测误差较小,精度达到一级,。更多还原

【Abstract】 The deformation monitoring of landslide is an important content of the safety monitoring of landslide, it is one of the important tasks to make timely, reasonable and effective analysis for landslide observation data for getting the deformation regularities and the safety states of landslide, and the safety status and the stability of the landslide can be judged by the analysis results.The advanced monitoring, the numerical simulation and grey theory are applied to study the Zhangmu landslide in Tibet. Subsequently, this paper take Zhangmu landslide in Tibet for example, study how to dispose and lay monitoring points and how to set up the 3D model of the landslide. In the end, the grey system theory is applied to predict the tendency of the landslide. The major results are as follows:(1) Detailedly presented how to choose monitoring items, instruments, how to dispose and lay monitoring points.(2) Through monitoring data collection and analysis the data of the high slope, determined the slope stability, timely adjusted the design parameters and protection measures.(3)Leads into FLAC procedure—an advanced geotectonic engineering calculation software, introduces the basic characteristic,operation method of FLAC3D,furthermore, uses FLAC3D to analyze and calculate the stability of the Zhangmu landslide.(4) Based on the actual displacement of the monitoring data, and established GM (1 .1) prediction model to forecast the displacement development of the actual slope. (5) Through the combination of monitoring data analysis shows that the landslide is in steady state.FLAC numerical simulation of landslide displacement monitoring to the security and stability of the landslide, grey theory of the actual landslide displacement deformation forecasts, compared with the experimental data that the precision of model itself is very high, the error in fitting and prediction is fairly small.更多还原